Statement changes little
“IT’S BEEN a long time coming.”
Those were Donald Trump’s words on May 14, 2018, when the US became the first world power to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem.
It was a major development: most countries that have diplomatic relations with Israel, including Britain, have long preferred Tel Aviv or a nearby suburb to station their ambassador.
But while that US relocation broke the mould, few followed its lead. Only Guatemala has physically relocated diplomatic staff, while a smattering of other small countries have made noises about a possible move.
It could be said that Mike Pompeo’s announcement this week has been a long time coming, too. This is, after all, the most pro-Israel presidency the United States has seen in decades.
Many were outraged by the news; few were startled by it. The US position on the Middle East’s most intractable conflict has followed a course against the grain of international opinion since Mr Trump took office. What’s more, Mr Pompeo was at pains to point out during his announcement that the US had not decided all West Bank settlements should belong to Israel. That is something for Israelis and Palestinians to negotiate, he said.
So, to summarise, this announcement angered many, surprised nobody and came with many legal caveats. Will it change anything on the ground?
The short answer is no: it leaves Mr Trump’s critics still opposed to him and his supporters further enthused.
It does nothing to draw Palestinians back to a negotiating table under US mediation, as the president long promised to do with his self-vaunted deal for Middle East peace. Husam Zomlot, the PLO’s chief diplomat in the UK, said it “must put an end to the illusion of some that the Trump administration can ever be trusted”.
Nor will it convince other actors to change their settlement policy either. Russia called it a “blow to the peace process”, while the European Union said it still believed Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territory were illegal. Britain agrees.
It delighted Benjamin Netanyahu, who rushed to the settlement of Alon Shvut near Jerusalem to celebrate with local leaders, and will play well with the evangelical voter base in the US that Mr Trump will rely heavily upon in next year’s presidential election.
In short, an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal is an unlikely as it has been for many years.