Similarly terrible

VAs a retired GP I find the grim and tragic statistic of 783 Covid deaths within our community, as reported last week, a shocking reality to contemplate. This is against the backdrop of just over 100,000 Covid deaths nationwide.

In the early months of the pandemic you reported an excess of deaths within our community over the numbers expected as a proportion of the UK population. Estimates ran from twice the expected rate to 5 times that rate. I argued at the time that this was a gross exaggeration based on erroneous statistical manipulation.

The Jewish population in the UK is somewhere between 0.4 and 0.5%. If 100,000 UK Covid deaths are reported, one might expect deaths within our community to be between 400 and 500, not 783 as stated.

20% of UK Jews live in Barnet , Greater London (Board of Deputies estimation). Over the last week the Covid death rate in Barnet was 361 per 100,000, whereas the UK average was 270 (from ONS study). In other areas Hackney was 295, Redbridge 396, Harrow 420 and Brent 508.

So, in the most densely populated Jewish areas of London alone, accounting for 3/5 of the UK Jewish population, the Covid death rate is higher by a factor of very nearly 1.5.

Other UK regions where the Covid death rate is above the national average include Greater Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham, Southend and Bournemouth, all areas with a sizeable Jewish population.

Also of note is the fact that the median age in the UK general population is 40 years (ONS) whereas for Jews it is 50-54 years (Board of Deputies).

It is estimated that the greater number of deaths in the older age groups from Covid would give rise to a further 15% rise amongst Jews.

If we revisit the expected Covid deaths within our community and multiply that figure of 400-500 by 1.5 to take account of the fact that the vast majority of Jews in the UK live in the high risk areas noted above, and also factor in the increase due to average age, we end up with an estimate that is very close indeed to the grim reality of 783 deaths.

I therefore maintain that as a separate religious or ethnic group we are no more prone to the ravages of this disease than the general population.

Let us hope and pray that with the successful roll out of the vaccination programme this horrific disease is brought under control, and we can devote our statistically inclined brains to counting births, bar and batmitzvahs and weddings. Dr Neil Joseph

Manchester M8