Richard Kirkman

THE 1997 General Election was a dark day for the Conservatives nationally and here in the North East.

But for 222 voters in the Hexham

constituency it would have been darker still. Without them it would have been a wipeout. That year, Labour won 28 of the region’s 30 seats, with Peter Atkinson scraping home for the Tories in Hexham and Alan Beith registering his customary victory for the Lib Dems in Berwick.

Now, 27 years on, the prospect of a Tory wipeout looms again. The polling website Electoral Calculus makes Labour favourites to win all 27 North East seats in the election which must be held in the next few months. A major poll this week by YouGov MRP made the Tories very slight favourites to win North Northumberland (the renamed Berwick seat), but behind everywhere else in the region.

All this comes less than five years after the 2019 General Election

appeared to have shifted the tectonic plates in North East politics. For the first time, the Conservatives were not just competitive in the more affluent or rural parts of the region – they broke through in the places where coal used to be dug, steel used to be forged and Labour MPs were always duly returned. The so-called Red Wall was breached.

The theory – and it is a persuasive one – is that socially conservative Labour voters rebelled against the party’s London elite in the 2016 EU

referendum and, suspicious of Labour’s commitment to Brexit and unhappy with Jeremy Corbyn as leader, were persuaded to desert again in 2019. The result was a breakthrough in unlikely places like North West Durham and Blyth Valley. In all the Conservatives won 10 out of the 29 North East seats.

Of course, the national picture has changed a great deal since 2019. The Conservatives have collapsed into indiscipline, factionalism and finger-pointing. Boris Johnson fought a canny 2019 campaign and retains a real connection with many Red Wall voters. But he’s a disgrace and the Tories would be mad to let him near the leadership ever again (but I wouldn’t rule it out if he got back into Parliament some day). After Liz Truss’ chaotic few weeks in No.10 Rishi Sunak took over. I feel sorry for him. He’s clearly giving everything, working as hard as he can. But his skills seem more technocratic than political. He faces mission impossible – but he’s no Ethan Hunt.

Every poll is pointing towards a Labour landslide, with some even forecasting that the Tories will drop to fewer than 100 seats (they won 165 in that 1997 hammering and 365 in 2019). This week’s YouGov MRP poll gives them 155 seats, giving them a fighting chance of retaining North Northumberland, Hexham and one or two others.

An overdue revision of boundaries slightly helps the Conservatives by creating a few more suburban seats in the South. But up here it is counter-productive for them. The Blyth Valley seat they won last time is divided between two other seats, while North West Durham is parcelled up four ways. The surging Reform Party won’t help them either. It may not win any seats nationally, but up here it’s a nuisance for the Conservatives in classic Red Wall seats. YouGov MRP has them polling at 27% in Hartlepool, which is among 10 seats in the region where they are forecast to beat the Tories.

But that Reform surge shows that the Red Wall vote isn’t going to flock blindly back to Labour. In Bishop Auckland, the Labour majority fell for five elections in a row before the seat toppled to the Tories in 2019. That looks like a long-term trend and one that may only be disrupted for one parliament.

That seat and others will be on the Conservatives’ radar to retake in 2029. But as for this year, they look too far gone.

■ Richard Kirkman is Print Editor.

Graeme Whitfield returns next week.