Starmer can sit back as Tories face a drubbing
LAST Thursday’s English local elections, Police and Crime Commissioner, ‘Metro’ Mayor and Blackpool by-election signalled one major outcome; the Conservatives are on a very rapid downward spiral.
The beneficiaries are actually more nuanced than a Labour victory. In Blackpool, Labour romped to victory but it was just how close Reform came to beating the Conservatives into second place that indicates just how angry the centre right vote is at the state of play in Westminster. Expect almost all red wall seats to go Labour at the next General Election, the question now is by how much will Labour win?
In some Tory heartlands the Lib Dems managed to make some modest gains in local elections, benefitting from Conservative voters who cannot bring themselves to vote Labour but also want to send a message to their preferred party.
These are not isolated events, it is very clear that no one wants the Conservatives in charge, including their own past supporters. Some predictions have put the Conservatives at fewer seats than at the 1997 General Election, when John Major returned just 165 representatives. If that does turn out to be the case, it may well spell the end of the Conservatives ever having a Parliamentary majority again. Particularly if Reform continue to make progress and hoover up the centre-right vote in years to come.
Reform may have only stood in 12% of seats, but the effect they had was to deprive the Conservatives of any chance of winning. Sunderland indicated that across the board (effectively a plague on all your houses). While Reform’s actual votes were not enough to challenge the winning party, they have begun to create an impact upon which they can build with the right electoral strategy and targeted funding with experienced campaigners who know how to work the ground for future electoral success.
I must congratulate Ben Houchen on his victory in the Tees Valley Mayoral election. I stood against Ben at the very
first Tees Valley campaign in 2017 and I found him to be very fair and affable, certainly keen to do as good a job as he can. To win with 53% of the vote while the Conservative vote collapses around him deserves special mention. There is no doubt in my mind, his win was because of him, in spite of the Party he represents.
Attention turns to what the Conservatives can do to stem the decline. They could go to the right and appease those who backed Reform, they could stay put and carry on or they could get a new party leader. But none of those options are remotely appealing nor will they change a thing. To carry on would guarantee electoral oblivion on the strength of Thursday’s results, to go to the right would guarantee further losses in the shire heartlands who are perhaps more centrist than northern Conservatives (hence the Lib Dem recent victories). To elect a new Leader would indicate a party in such disarray and very little time to demonstrate leadership before the next election. That would leave voters with no real reason to vote Conservative.
Be under no illusions, I don’t think Sunak is doing a particularly good job nor has he really communicated what he and his Cabinet intends to do. That lack of clear leadership is his biggest shortcoming. Mind you, I still struggle to see what exactly Starmer and his Cabinet would do to improve the country. Then again, his strategy is simple. Sit back and let the Tories lose to his gain.
So, there we have it, the first real indication of how the next General Election may pan out. There are no solutions for the Conservatives, there’s no way to turn.
“None of the Tories’ options are remotely appealing and nor will they change a thing