I’m not about to count the chickens
THERE are not many benefits of being old, but one is, I suppose that you have seen many events, and possibly learnt from them. There is going to be a General Election, and I wonder if we can learn anything from the ones that have gone before?
The first general election I was actively involved in was in 1964, when I was at university. It came after 13 years of Tory rule, and the Tories had lost their charismatic leader, Harold Macmillan, to be replaced by Alec Douglas Home who did not have quite the same appeal. The Government was exhausted and beset by scandals, the most well-known one being John Profumo and Christine Keeler. This still inspires films and TV serials.
Essentially the country felt it was time for a change, but this did not translate into a big majority. Despite his efforts to project the Labour party as modern in contrast to the “Grouse Moor” image of Sir Alec, Harold Wilson ended up with a majority of four. He pressed on and in 1966 called another General Election and secured a majority of 98.
The Government was beset by economic problems, and the next decade was one of industrial strife, low growth and small majorities. Harold Wilson and then James Callaghan had to form a minority government and rely on Liberal and Northern Irish Unionist support. But good things did emerge from that period such as the Equal Pay Act 1970 and finally joining Europe.
1979 saw the beginning of the Thatcher era. She fought and won three general elections. She was eventually ousted by her own MPs who thought the country was fed up with her, and they might lose their seats (a situation that often spurs MPs to action)
She was succeeded by John Major in 1990, whom many people thought weak and indecisive in comparison with her. But he was tougher than people thought. Labour under Neil Kinnock were riding high in the polls in 1992 and thought they would win, even holding what looked like a victory rally before the election. But they didn’t. John Major won a majority of 21. This often serves as a cautionary tale for today’s Labour party.
But by 1997 the Tories had been in power for 18 years, and were beset by scandal and internal arguments, mainly about Europe. They were looking tired, as in 1964.
Along came a young charismatic leader, Tony Blair, who reinvigorated the Labour party and won a massive majority of 179 in 1997. He had a fortunate inheritance. The economy was booming, EU membership had boosted our economy, and neither China nor Russia were seen as threats. Blair managed to boost the NHS, and the Sure Start scheme did much to reduce child poverty.
His big mistake was to think Britain could sustain a global peacemaker role, and interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan turned out to be disasters. It is often said that without Iraq Tony Blair might have been remembered as one of our great Prime Ministers. He went on to win two more elections in 2001 and 2005 with sizeable majorities, before handing over to Gordon Brown in 2007.
Although a very principled man, Gordon Brown lacked Tony Blair’s charisma, and lost the 2010 election. No one gained a clear majority, and we ended up with a Conservative/ Liberal coalition led by David Cameron. He gained an overall majority of 12 in 2015 but resigned after losing the Brexit Referendum, to be replaced by Theresa May in 2016.
Most of you wilI know what happened next. I feel the influence of Brexit is not typical and not useful for our analysis. I doubt if Boris Johnson would have won the majority he did in 2019 without Brexit, and Liz Truss’ shenanigans defy analysis. But I think the longer-term picture is worth thinking about to see if we can draw any conclusions which are useful today.
Lesson one, which is rather obvious, is don’t count chickens. Everything pointed to Labour winning in 1992, but John Major managed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Labour is desperately trying not to have a chicken count now and treading very carefully to avoid any triumphalism.
The second is that governments which have been in power for a long time end up almost destroying themselves. Allegations of sleaze and internal faction fighting destroy a party’s credibility with the electorate. A leader who does not appear so tough or charismatic as a previous strong one doesn’t help either. This is what happened in 1964, in 1997 and again in 2009 with the Parliamentary expenses scandal.
I think we are in a similar situation now. People are fed up with the Conservative government and have already made their minds up, whatever Rishi Sunak may say in the rain.
But the nature of our system doesn’t automatically mean a large Labour majority. People may vote tactically for other parties, particularly in the South. We could end up with a minority government or one with a very small majority. Which means another election in a year of two is a possibility. As a Labour Party member for many years I don’t want that to happen, but I am worried it might.