So what is Labour’s worst problem, Ed? Look in the mirror
Dave and Boris weigh in for a new fight
DAVID CAMERON and Boris Johnson are once again locked in a struggle that will see them both significantly reduced in stature – or at least in weight. When the pair headed to Newark to campaign in the by-election, a well-wisher offered them some Rocky Road. This calorific treat is not what portly politicians should be eating – it is made up of marshmallows, shortbread and chocolate. But both men have a sweet tooth and neither could resist. Perhaps the shame was too much to bear as afterwards they began discussing a weight-loss contest until the Election. They’ll have to work hard to beat George Osborne, who looks like he has lost more than a stone on the 5:2 diet. As one Tory wag puts it, Osborne’s waistline is the best indicator of the state of the economy – when it is expanding, the economy is not, and when it’s contracting, the economy is growing.
WE HAVE just had a sneak preview of the next General Election campaign. We now know what politics looks like in the age of selfies, viral videos and constant Twitter commentary. We are in an era of personality-driven politics.
Add to this the virulently anti-politics mood and you have a dangerous cocktail for Labour. In this campaign, Ed Miliband hasn’t been embarrassed in debate over policy, but he has been tripped up on breakfast television, monstered on the radio, and mocked in print and online. He’s not looked like a PM-in-waiting.
Those close to him always knew this was going to come, but even they have been taken aback at how brutal it has been. Two things have compounded the misery for Miliband. First, his main opponent is insulated from some of the excesses of this culture by virtue of his office, as even in this anti-politics age, people still think twice about mocking the Prime Minister to his face.
Second, Miliband tends to ignore things he’s not good at, which is why his image problem has had little attention. There are few people in the Labour leader’s inner-circle prepared to tell him things he doesn’t want to hear.
Labour’s hopes for a counterattack rest on TV debates, where those planning Labour’s campaign believe Miliband can persuade the country of his prime ministerial credentials. The bad news for them is that these debates are unlikely to happen.
The Tories know how much Labour need them, so are unlikely to sign up. As a member of the Tory Election campaign team told me: ‘The more Labour pushes for debates, the less likely we are
TWO things are puzzling the Tories about the Lib Dems. First of all, there’s the lack of leadership challenge to Nick Clegg – as one Tory Cabinet Minister says: ‘No other party would have put up with this abysmal showing for four years.’ The second is that they haven’t pushed for more help to shore up Clegg’s position. As one Tory source declares: ‘We remain in a coalition with them and it is in our interests to make that work.’
to agree to them’. Labour’s other hope is that a radical policy prospectus will capture the public’s imagination. But a string of proposals – even a pledge that everyone will be able to see a GP within 48 hours – has simply not cut it.
One influential member of the Shadow Cabinet has an explanation for this: ‘No one believes it.’ The frontbencher argues that until Labour regains some credibility on spending, nothing it says will be taken seriously. Miliband’s Shadow Cabinet is not a happy place – many did not vote for him in the leadership battle.
‘I won’t put my foot out to trip him up,’ said one source. ‘But neither will I put my hand out to pick him up when he falls.’
A Shadow Cabinet loyalist warns that Yvette Cooper is positioning herself for a future leadership contest. The growing tensions between the Miliband and Cooper camps are particularly worrying for Labour because she is in charge of the immigration portfolio, one of the main drivers of UKIP support.
ASENIOR Labour parliamentarian sympathetic to Miliband complains that whatever Cooper’s desire to make a headlinegrabbing pre-election intervention on the subject, it is Miliband who has driven all the work in this policy area in recent years.
Despite this, Miliband is still in with a chance of victory. Labour knows how to turn votes into seats better than any other party; these elections suggest it could win a majority with a lead of 3 per cent.
The party is losing votes to UKIP – but mainly in its safest seats – while the Tories are shedding them in marginals. Labour also looks well set to make gains from the Lib Dems, whose best hope of hanging on to seats is against its coalition partners.
David Axelrod, the Obama guru hired by Labour, is trying to weave policies into a compelling national story.
But Labour also needs to address the image problem of the man tasked with telling it. If they don’t, Miliband will be eaten alive by the bacon butty brigade.
James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator