Who’ll decide the next Tory leader? The Europeans!

DAVID CAMERON is anxious to lose his reputation as the nation’s Chillaxerin-Chief. No sooner had he conducted an audacious grab for the centre ground at the Tory Party conference in Manchester, than he was rushed back to London to prepare for a hard-working 49th birthday on Friday.

It started with talks with the Ukrainians on local difficulties with Vladimir Putin and ended with six hours of meetings at Chequers and a ‘working dinner’ with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Germans take birthdays seriously, and I can reveal that ‘Mutti’ (Mama) Merkel brought a bottle of a 1966 Spaetlese (late harvest) vintage, the year of Dave’s birth.

My spy at the PM’s country pile tells me the two leaders wandered together in the gardens, long after the photo call, to exchange confidences.

Both share European headaches, with Mrs Merkel committing herself to absorbing more refugees than her countrymen are comfortable with.

ONE of Cameron’s key European advisers, meanwhile, regards the possibility of a ‘No’ vote in the referendum on keeping Britain in the EU as a ‘black swan’ event – the unanticipated but possible outcome that would send everything haywire.

And not just for Dave. One Cabinet source anxiously predicts that the referendum ‘could be as disruptive to the order of succession as the Republican Oliver Cromwell was to the Stuart dynasty’.

For one thing, George Osborne’s place as front-runner to succeed his friend is contingent on how comfortably the ‘Yes’ campaign succeeds. My senior source in the renegotiation ranks frets that an ‘oceanic complacency’ among pro-Europeans underestimates the potential of ‘No’ vote.

So the rollout of powerful proEU sorts has been speeded up: hence the serving up of Lord (Stuart) Rose, the debonair exM&S boss who has remained close to the Cameron team.

Rose, who has an extensive and glamorous social circle as well as being a City influencer, will square up to Peter Cruddas, the tough former party donor who has just announced he will be a major funder of the ‘No’ camp.

Cruddas adds undoubted heft to the naysayers’ camp, but rich men with an axe to grind may not play well with voters. Rose’s weakness lies in his smoothness: ‘He’s like a glass of reassuringly expensive Chateau d’Yquem,’ observes a frenemy.

At least the Chancellor has a classy new passenger aboard his leadership bandwagon. As we report today, Philip Hammond, the Foreign Secretary, has swung his backing behind Mr Osborne.

Some think Hammond, a talented business brain and silky operator in EU negotiations, is positioning himself to be Chancellor under George.

He’s impressed conference goers this week by shedding his saturnine reputation for a more sociable approach.

Famously aloof, one minister once compared a meeting with the Foreign Secretary to an ‘appointment with the speaking clock’, but in Manchester he knocked back white wine at late receptions and joshed about political tactics with former England footballer Sol Campbell in a Chinese restaurant.

ALL this is a blow to Theresa May, who delivered an abrasive anti-immigration speech, slamming EU refugee quotas. ‘UkipLite,’ sniffs one rival. If the stayin campaign romps to victory, the feeling among her supporters is that MPs won’t vote her into the final two for the leadership.

But the kitten-heeled warrior’s moment might come, her team think, if the result is so close that the party is split and her more stroppy stance looks vindicated.

One veteran foot soldier of the European wars goes further. Liam Fox, a staunch sceptic who ran against Cameron in 2010, tells me that it is ‘nigh on impossible’ for anyone fully behind the ‘Yes’ cause to gather enough support to succeed Cameron: ‘The party won’t wear it.’ Perhaps this explains Boris Johnson’s recent musing that Britain would fare perfectly well outside the EU, whatever Lord Rose and the other silky business folk say.

A stark dilemma for powerhungry Conservatives lies ahead. They can gain favours from Dave and George by pitching in to a fraught referendum fight. Or risk the wrath of Nos 10 and 11 by keeping their head down – but win a higher chance of taking the Euro-battered Tory crown.