IDS won’t sink the Tories, but Osborne might

IF DAVID CAMERON cannot control his Cabinet and his party, then how can we be confident of his ability to govern the country? Voters can and do put up with unpopular measures from a strong and decisive leader, but they will swiftly punish weakness.

Confidence drains from Downing Street at such moments as this.

Iain Duncan Smith’s resignation, a silly and petulant act by an undistinguished Minister, ought not to matter. If he had stayed, he would almost certainly have been sacked later this year, as he well knew. He had in fact agreed to the measures he now says made him quit.

But what should have been a damp squib has exploded like a landmine, because of the high tensions in the Cabinet caused by the EU referendum, and because of George Osborne’s Budget problems.

IDS was indulged in his idealistic, expensive and complex welfare reforms partly because of his obvious sincerity and partly because his colleagues were guilty about the cruel way in which they had ditched him as their leader. Also it was useful to have at least one identifiable, undoubted advocate of Brexit in the Cabinet.

But one man did not indulge him, the Chancellor, George Osborne – who also happens to be one of the toughest-minded supporters of staying in the EU. And IDS has now spectacularly revenged himself.

Mr Osborne’s far-from-triumphant Budget had gone wrong with unusual speed over the issue of disability payments. The Chancellor was also facing criticism from his own backbenches for using his Budget speech to make anti-Brexit propaganda. IDS spotted that his adversary was in trouble and decided to make that trouble much worse.

Hence the open bitterness, spite and rudeness, which never help any political party. This has exposed the Government’s flank to Labour’s otherwise fumbling Jeremy Corbyn, handed the chance to attack the Tories on an issue that for once unites his party.

Quietly, Labour is doing surprisingly well in the polls despite having a fringe leader. It is far too soon for mid-term blues – but this Government never really had a honeymoon. The electorate had been cohabiting with David Cameron in the coalition for five years before they finally formalised the union and gave him a majority.

Not much has gone right since. If things carry on as they are, Mr Cameron may lose the EU referendum simply because the voters want to give his Government a kicking, always a danger in such votes. The departure of IDS is at least partly due to the strains caused by the endlessly poisonous European question.

What is to be done? Could it be that the problem – underlined by IDS’s departure – is George Osborne himself? He has been at the Treasury too long. His incessant claims of success are not borne out by the figures. Wheels and widgets repeatedly fly off his cunningly constructed Budgets, often doing collateral damage to innocent bystanders. His ambitions for the premiership are too obvious. The public do not like him and now they are ceasing to respect him.

The Prime Minister has given his Chancellor too much freedom and too much power. He needs to reassert his leadership with style and firmness, and make it plain as quickly as possible that he is in charge.