This is no time to give up free trade

IF THE answer is Donald Trump, then what on earth was the question? Some argue that voting patterns clearly show that the issue was the economy. Or as Bill Clinton’s campaigners once put it: ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’

Others disagree, pointing out that large swathes of middle America voted for the Donald too, and that, in fact, the average earnings of Trump voters were higher than Clinton voters.

But I think this kind of analysis misses the point. Simply looking at the income of voters does not tell you how they feel about the economy or explain why they have voted for such an extraordinary candidate. I believe people have voted for that dramatic change because they feel less secure, and that this is still largely about the economy. And while there are many differences between Brexit and Trump, I believe the same factors apply.

In short, you don’t need to have lost your job or be poor to feel that life is just not as secure as it was, that life is not getting better and that indeed the spoils are not being shared fairly. In fact it may well be that the people who feel this are the middle classes as much, if not more than anyone else.

The financial crisis revealed that much of the developed world had been living beyond its means. At the same time decades of globalisation have brought significant change, including a draining of manufacturing jobs out of Western economies.

Middle class households in the developed world – and many readers of this paper – have learned that their pensions are perhaps not as secure or as valuable as they hoped. In Britain they have watched their children struggle to get on the housing ladder. And even those in wellpaid jobs have watched their earnings stagnate.

A rising standard of living, our children destined to be better off than ourselves, a comfortable retirement – none of these are now taken for granted. At the same time, global corporations avoid tax and boardroom pay has soared. Too many politicians and business leaders simply failed to see how corrosive this has been.

There will be many reasons some Americans voted for Trump (and Brexit). But I believe the great economic insecurity and a perception of unfairness is the underlying cause.

Sadly neither Trump (nor Brexit) are the answer to this widespread anxiety. Threatening free trade, and yes that includes free movement of people, will not solve these issues.

It is throwing out the baby with the bath water and in fact will make the world less economically secure and will depress growth.

Britain is leaving the EU and Trump is President of the US. I don’t think either of these is a reason to feel less anxious about our future prosperity.