Has our lucky PM just found the missing piece of her Brexit jigsaw?
EARLIER this month, a group of Government officials sat down with Jared Kushner, Steve Bannon and other senior aides of President-elect Donald Trump for a ‘get to know you’ meeting. One of the first messages from Team Trump was to the point. ‘He’s not going to stop tweeting,’ they said.
This may not exactly have been the news the British delegation – or the world at large – was hoping for. But it should not come as a surprise. To paraphrase Tony Blair, he ran for office as Donald Trump, and this Friday he will begin to govern as Donald Trump.
To some of us this is a terrifying prospect. In fact, to some of us this is a ‘pack your bags, head for the airport and find a remote farm in the Australian Outback to live for the next four years’ prospect.
But Theresa May and her Ministers have nowhere to hide.
Like it or not, they have to find a way of creating and cementing a ‘special relationship’ with the new Feline Grabber In Chief.
That process began just before Christmas when the Prime Minister’s two most senior aides – Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill – jetted off to Trump Tower for a meeting with members of the incoming administration. The details of their discussions remain shrouded in mystery. But speaking to Government insiders, it’s clear these early contacts were broadly positive.
‘To be honest, Trump’s people are pretty impressive, politically,’ said one. ‘Look at someone like Bannon. Yes, he’s had his share of criticism. But when you talk to him he’s got a good strategic eye. You have to remember he’s spent 25 to 30 years thinking about this stuff and preparing for this moment.’
May and her team have not had that luxury. Until 10pm on election day, a Trump presidency was not on their radar.
And even though their focus has understandably been on managing the fallout from the EU referendum – the Prime Minister is setting out more detail of her negotiating strategy on Tuesday – the economic, political and geo-political challenges thrown up by a Trump presidency could actually exceed those posed by Brexit.
I recently asked a Government Minister what issues he thought would be thrown up by Trump’s election. ‘Well, he could start World War Three,’ he said. I laughed. ‘No, I’m being serious,’ he responded. ‘If you look at his stance on Nato, that’s very, very dangerous.’
Not everyone in Government takes such an apocalyptic view. Indeed, to a number of Ministers, Trump may even represent the missing piece of the Brexit jigsaw. ‘The discussions we’ve been having over trade have genuinely been fantastic,’ said one. ‘They’ve literally been saying, “Let’s do a deal. What do you want? Let’s start next week.”’
But these same Ministers are also aware that when trade talks begin in earnest, they will be conducted very much on Trump’s terms.
‘This is the guy who wrote The Art Of The Deal,’ one senior Government adviser told me.
‘When we sit down with him we’re going to need some serious negotiators in the room.’
It’s clear that May and her colleagues are initially viewing Trump through the prism of risk versus reward. The rewards are economic. The risks relate to global security.
‘Take the Putin relationship,’ said one Minister. ‘What we don’t know is what Trump is going to want to offer him to cement the relationship. It could be an old-fashioned grand diplomatic gesture, like making his first overseas trip to Moscow. Or it could be something that could give us more of a problem.’
The nature of these potential ‘problems’ were graphically illustrated last week with the revelation that a former MI6 agent, Christopher Steele, had produced a dossier claiming Trump had been compromised by Soviet intelligence.
TRUMP dismissed these claims as a fabrication by political opponents and ‘a failed spy’. But as it happens, I know Christopher Steele, and whatever the validity of the allegations in the dossier, he is a serious, conscientious and wellrespected former intelligence officer. And concerns over the nature of Trump’s relationship with Putin – in particular its implications for the pooling of US/UK intelligence – are shared by the wider intelligence community.
But setting aside the murkier elements of the prematurely unfolding Trump psychodrama, the key to the maintenance of ‘the special relationship’ will – as ever – rest primarily on the personal chemistry between its protagonists.
And paradoxically, this may be to May’s advantage.
In personality terms, May and Trump are like chalk and cheese – or chalk and a taco bowl.
But as one of the Prime Minister’s colleagues points out: ‘Theresa isn’t the sort of person who minces her words. When she meets Donald Trump she’s going to talk to him straight. And I think that he’ll respect that.’
This exercise in ‘blunt diplomacy’ was road-tested earlier last week, when Boris Johnson had what I understand were ‘constructive but frank’ discussions with members of the Trump transition team. The results were positive. ‘They can take it,’ a Johnson ally reported.
Which is just as well, because May has made her personal views on Trump fairly clear. ‘Unacceptable,’ was her no-nonsense response when asked her views about Trump’s attitude to women. And when he claimed in June there were ‘no-go areas’ for police in several British cities, she chastised him for being ‘just plain wrong’.
But that was six months, and a lifetime, ago. Since then the world has changed. And the Prime Minister knows that, publicly at least, she has to change with it.
‘What we see is a series of opportunities,’ was the official response from a Downing Street spokeswoman when I asked about the dawning of the Trump era. However, I got the sense that, as we spoke, she was also keeping her fingers crossed.
Maybe she should uncross them. The truth is, no one really knows what a Trump presidency will bring.
‘Having spoken to some of Trump’s team, I get the sense that they’re still finding their way,’ one ministerial aide told me. ‘I suspect it’ll take about six months before we can form a proper judgment on where they plan to take this.’
So relax. Theresa May has six months to get to grips with Donald Trump. But remember, that farm in the Outback is taken…
THERE was a moment of comedic confusion last week when Transport Secretary Chris Grayling was told of major disruption on the M1. ‘What’s the cause?’ he asked. ‘Jam, Minister,’ came the reply. ‘I know there’s a jam, what’s causing it,’ said Grayling. ‘Er… jam, Minister.’ It transpired that a lorry carrying jam had shed its load across the entire carriageway.