Rebellion is in the air – but it will be foiled
IT HAS been yet another bruising week at Westminster, but don’t waste any sympathy on Theresa May. Throughout the difficult Brexit negotiations she has been firm in her belief that the substance of what we achieve is far more important than the process by which we achieve it.
There will be times like this when noises off create distractions – but it will make no difference to her approach. For her, the destination is what matters. That’s why last Thursday, when Westminster was full of conspiracy theories and rumours of resignations, Mrs May sat down with David Davis and found the compromise that allowed them to agree the backstop proposal on the Irish border which we have now sent to Brussels.
The fact that the EU’s Michel Barnier picked some holes in it in a slightly sniffy way, but accepted it as a basis for negotiation, shows it was pitched exactly right. It is a feasible option but does not give the EU all it wants.
Then the PM had to deal with Boris – on whom the shackles of collective responsibility have never weighed heavily. It’s part of his charm that he is incapable of uttering a boring sentence, a trait that sometimes endears him more to journalists than close colleagues.
But Mrs May is not surprised emotions are running high. She knows we are approaching the sharp end of the negotiations where we must decide what type of Brexit is best for Britain.
Two years after the referendum, the full range of views are available – from those who want to reverse the process to those who actively want the negotiations to fail because they believe a ‘no-deal’ scenario is best for Britain.
Most serious politicians fall somewhere between. For me, the 52-48 per cent referendum result points to a position where we have to respect the vote by leaving, but not treat other member states as ‘the enemy’ or turn our back on the enormous economic opportunities of trading with our nearest neighbours.
Over the past few weeks, a group of former Cabinet Ministers has been talking about what a sensible Brexit would look like. Former Remainers and Brexit campaigners are thinking along the same lines. We agree Britain’s economic interests are paramount so we must support the Government’s approach.
This is the backdrop to this week’s crucial Commons votes on a series of amendments to the Withdrawal Bill. The Westminster air is again full of the scent of rebellions, chaos and catastrophic Government defeats. I predict they simply won’t materialise for one simple reason: the whips can count. If they think that the Government won’t have a majority, they advise a change in policy.
The votes will be on a range of Government changes to the Lords’ amendments on serious issues like the Belfast Agreement, the environment, and the ‘meaningful vote’ for Parliament at the end of the negotiations.
These changes respect the desire of the Lords to improve the legislation, but tweak the words to fit with Government objectives. I predict the vast majority of them will pass easily – reflecting the overwhelming desire of Conservative MPs to give Theresa the strongest hand at the European Council meeting later this month.
The slogan ‘Keep calm and carry on’ could have been designed for the PM. She will – and that’s why she is our best hope for a good Brexit deal.
Most of this week’s crucial votes by MPs will pass easily