SO WHAT DOES A NO DEAL REALLY MEAN?
1 POLICING AND SECURITY
POLICE forces will not have access to European Arrest Warrants or the Schengen Information System II, which allows officers to enter and receive alerts on criminals. However, EU member states are being encouraged to share SIS II alerts with Interpol, from where the information could still be legally accessed by the UK after Brexit.
Britain will immediately leave the Europol law-enforcement agency following No Deal. A new unit, the International Crime Co-ordination Centre, has been set up to help British police officers share information and co-operate with their colleagues on the Continent.
2 FARMING MINI DEAL
THE EU is expected to accept British farming products in a minideal that lifts the threat of a crippling embargo. However, under World Trade Organisation rules, tariffs would be imposed on UK farming exports. Average tariffs of 84 per cent would be levied on beef exports, 48 per cent on lamb, 37 per cent on poultry, 30 per cent on pork and 53 per cent on wheat, according to the National Farmers’ Union. Sheep farmers will be among the worst hit because 30 per cent of UK lamb is sent abroad, mostly to the EU. They will also be put under pressure by imports: in a pre-Brexit deal, Britain agreed to take half the 220,000 tons of lamb sent to the EU from New Zealand each year.
Ministers have pledged to match the £3 billion a year the EU spends on farm subsidies until 2022. A new British system for paying farmers – based partly on protecting habitats – will then be introduced.
3 THE PREMIER LEAGUE
PLAYERS from the EU are able to play for English football clubs under free movement rules – but those rules will cease to apply once Britain leaves the bloc. Currently, non-EU players must get a work permit through a convoluted system that takes into account wages, transfer fees and international appearances. After No Deal, this could apply to players from the bloc too. The FA is understood to be using Brexit to push opportunities for home-grown talent, backing a plan to raise the minimum number of home players in each squad from eight to 12.
4 EUROTUNNEL
AFTER two years of preparations, Eurotunnel declared itself ready for No Deal in March. It has spent £13 million on new infrastructure, including passport controls and additional border inspection posts in Calais. Eurostar bosses also say they have ‘firm plans’ in place to maintain services after a Government assessment warned in February of long queues at London St Pancras.
5 CHANNEL PORTS
UK LORRIES will be granted temporary haulage rights until the end of the year to ensure ‘basic connectivity’ and help minimise disruption at Calais and other Channel ports.
Bosses at Calais insist that a No Deal Brexit will not create delays. A demarcated holding area has been created for drivers who do not have the right paperwork in order not to slow down transit times. France is also recruiting 700 customs officials by 2020 for Calais, Dunkirk, Le Havre and the Channel Tunnel.
On the English side of the water, plans are in place for up to 11,000 lorries to queue on the M20 if there are delays at Dover. Manston Airport in Kent could be used as an ‘overspill’ lorry park. Highways Agency officers will be able to fine hauliers £300 if their drivers ignore orders or try to jump the queue.
6 FREE PORTS
MINISTERS have pledged to open up to ten ‘free ports’ – Singapore-style low-tax, tariff-free economic zones – to boost jobs.
Companies would be allowed to store products or manufacture goods within the zones without having to pay duty before exporting them elsewhere.
Boris Johnson says such free ports could transform ‘left-behind areas’. Teesport and the Port of Tyne in the North East, London Gateway in Essex, and Milford Haven in Pembrokeshire are all said to be interested in becoming free ports.
7 HOUSE PRICES
THE housing market is sluggish, with annual price growth of less than one per cent for eight months in a row – and lenders blame the uncertainty caused by Brexit. Property sales have dropped 16.5 per cent year-on-year, according to latest figures. The Office of Budget Responsibility predicts that a No Deal Brexit would result in a ten per cent crash in house prices between the start of 2019 and mid-2021. But this figure relies on analysis by the International Monetary Fund, which has consistently made incorrect Brexit forecasts.
8 MOTORISTS
DRIVERS taking their vehicle abroad will need a so-called Green Card, which guarantees that they have the necessary minimum level of motor insurance. Drivers are advised to allow a month to get this from their insurance firm. They will also need a GB sticker and an international driving permit, which can be bought at a post office for £5.50.
9 FISHING MINI DEAL
THE EU stands to lose more than Britain from No Deal. European vessels catch fish worth £502 million from British waters each year. Half of all the fish landed by Belgian boats comes from UK waters. Brussels says the EU will give UK fishermen access to EU waters until the end of 2019 if the rights are reciprocated.
British fish producers are concerned about the impact delays at the border could have on seafood exports.
However, fishing now forms only a small part of the UK economy. In 2016, the turnover of the fishing industry was £725 million. By comparison, Harrods had an annual turnover of £2 billion.
10 FINANCIAL SERVICES MINI DEAL
UK FINANCIAL firms would lose ‘passporting rights’, which allow them to operate across the Continent. Regulators have, however, drawn up plans to prevent a ‘cliff edge’ on October 31.
EU-based traders will be allowed to continue routing their trades through London’s big clearing houses until March 2020. These clearing houses play a crucial role because they ensure a transaction is completed even if one side of a trade goes bust.
UK banks have set up new entities to do business from within the EU, and the Bank of England has established a new facility to lend euros after Brexit to make sure they do not run out of currency.
The UK’s banking system is expected to be strong enough to cope with a No Deal Brexit, but the Bank warned this month that UK asset prices – such as those for sterling, shares and Government and corporate debt – ‘would be expected to adjust sharply’. In the longer term, City firms will have permission to trade from Europe under ‘equivalence’ rules but there are concerns this could be withdrawn at short notice.
11 DATA FLOWS
HUGE volumes of personal data from citizens – including names, addresses, emails and financial details – are transferred by companies and public bodies between the UK and EU each day. These data flows could become illegal if there is a No Deal Brexit.
Businesses will have to put in place a so-called ‘legal transfer arrangement’ before they can transfer data.
Crucially, when a customer passes their own personal data to a company – for instance a French tourist booking a hotel room in Britain – it is not considered a data transfer and will not be affected.
12 FOOD SUPPLY
ABOUT 28 per cent of Britain’s food comes from the EU and some fresh vegetables and fruit could become more expensive. The Government has said that while a No Deal Brexit alone will not lead to food shortages, panic buying could result in supermarkets running short of some products. Boris Johnson’s £100 million ‘Prepare For Brexit’ PR blitz will aim to prevent this by warning families against stockpiling. Government advertising campaigns have managed to dramatically change human behaviour before – fears of transport chaos during the 2012 London Olympics came to nothing after a huge travel information campaign.
13 FLIGHTS MINI DEAL
FAMILIES looking to book flights after Brexit have been reassured there will be no disruption. Flights to European destinations will continue as normal until March 2020, under a mini-deal agreed with the EU.
The Government has also forged new agreements with non-EU countries such as the US and Canada, which currently allow British aircraft to land under rules negotiated by the EU, to ensure our planes can continue to fly there.
There will be no change to airport security measures and UK passengers catching connecting flights in EU airports will not need to be rescreened.
14 EXPATS LIVING IN THE EU
ABOUT 1.3 million Britons live in the 27 other EU states, and the Government has asked other European countries to reciprocate its pledge to uphold the rights of EU citizens in the UK. This would mean UK citizens living in the EU would be able to continue to work and access education, healthcare and benefits.
British expats living in the EU will continue to receive a state pension and benefits.
15 PASSPORT CONTROL
UK TRAVELLERS will get a stamp in their passport every time they enter an EU state and might lose access to the EU lane at some European airports – possibly resulting in longer queues.
Other airports, however, are well prepared. Schiphol in Amsterdam will have ‘mobile passport control desks’ for British travellers, while Faro airport in Portugal will have separate lanes for British nationals.
British tourists may need to show a return or onward ticket and prove that they have enough money for their stay, although this is not expected to be rigorously enforced.
There will be no change for British passport-holders arriving at Heathrow: they will still queue alongside EU travellers and those from other countries including the US, Canada and Australia.
16 TRAVEL DOCUMENTS MINI DEAL
BRITISH nationals will not need visas for stays of up to 90 days in EU states in any 180-day period. And they will still not require a passport to visit Ireland.
UK residents made 53.7 million visits to the EU last year and holidaymakers are being advised to make sure their passports are valid for at least six months.
17 MEDICINES
PHARMACEUTICAL firms have been asked by the Government to maintain a rolling six-week stockpile of medicines for the first six months after a No Deal Brexit.
They have also been told to put plans in place to air freight products with a short shelf life that cannot be stockpiled. In the event of queues of lorries at ports, getting medicines through will be a ‘category one’ priority, according to the Government.
Ministers last week announced £300 million for Government departments to buy extra freight capacity to bring medicines and other critical goods into the UK in the four years after a No Deal Brexit.
18 PRODUCT CERTIFICATION
THE CE mark – or Conformite Europeenne – is a cornerstone of the Single Market because it shows that a product complies with health, safety and environment standards. A new UKCA mark will replace the CE mark for products sold here.
But British firms selling products to the EU will still require the CE mark and, crucially, they will not be able to gain the certification from assessment bodies based in the UK.
For example, last year around 44 per cent of all certificates for medical devices were issued by UK-based ‘notified bodies’. Approval for these products must be switched to EU-based bodies by October 31 – something the medical industry says will prove hugely difficult.
19 CAR INDUSTRY
AUTOMOTIVE bosses are worried that any delays caused by border checks could impact the ‘just-in-time’ supply of car components. About £35 million of parts arrive from the Continent each day. Tariffs imposed on finished vehicles exported to the EU could also be up to 10 per cent under WTO rules, making it harder to sell British-made cars abroad. The UK’s largest carmakers have spent £330 million preparing for a No Deal Brexit, from new IT systems for export checks to renting warehouses for the stockpiling of components.
20 CUSTOMS
ABOUT 145,000 British companies that have previously traded only within the EU will have to make customs declarations for the first time. Certain goods may also require physical checks.
Firms importing goods from the EU will be allowed to defer making a full declaration and paying customs duty until after the goods arrive in the UK under the Transitional Simplified Procedures system, though it is claimed only 10,000 have registered for this.
A No Deal Brexit would mean the return of duty-free and the right of British travellers to claim a refund of VAT paid on goods during their stay in the EU.
21 EU HEALTH COVER
THE European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) won’t be valid for British travellers. Those with pre-existing health conditions are urged to ensure they get travel insurance with the right cover. The EHIC covers preexisting conditions but many travel insurance policies don’t.
22 MOBILE DATA ROAMING
IF THERE’S a No Deal Brexit, the guarantee of free mobile phone roaming throughout the EU will end.
However, most of the major mobile operators – EE, Three, O2 and Vodafone – have said they have no current plans to change their approach to mobile roaming.
A new law also means that consumers are protected from getting unexpected whopping bills for data charges. Once a customer reaches £45, they need to ‘opt in’ to spend more.