WHY BOSS OF NEXT HAS NO FEAR OF NO DEAL

May’s failure to plan would have ended in chaos. But now the boss of Next explains . . .

AS THE Japanese invasion of Singapore approached in 1942, the British Commander, General Percival, took an extraordinary decision. He refused to build defences where the enemy was most likely to attack. At first, he declined to explain his intransigence. Eventually he owned up to his faulty logic: defences were ‘bad for morale – for both troops and civilians’.

Percival’s fear of preparation proved catastrophic for both the military and civilian population. The lightning speed of the Japanese conquest left no time for any meaningful evacuation of either.

The lesson to be taken from this humiliation is clear: prepare for what you fear the most and don’t stick your head in the sand.

Unfortunately, our former Prime Minister Theresa May and exChancellor Philip Hammond took General Percival’s approach to preparing for No Deal.

As the original March 31 deadline loomed, we lacked even the basic necessities, such as transitional import arrangements and prospective UK tariff rates – both issued at the last minute.

At that time, a No Deal Brexit would have resulted in chaos and disorder. Today, however, the situation is very different. Boris Johnson’s Government and its Civil Service are galvanised and energetically preparing for No Deal. Good.

That matters, not only because No Deal is a very real prospect, but because demonstrating we are serious about it is the only way for us to get a good deal.

In my early days at Next, I was given some stern advice about negotiations: if you aren’t prepared to walk away from the table you are not going to negotiate – you are going to plead!

I do not doubt the sincerity of those who proclaim that No Deal will be a catastrophe, but wholly disagree. As preparations improve, there is less and less evidence to support their fears.

What’s more, ‘ catastrophising’ only serves to undermine our Government’s negotiating position and creates panic.

Like the Prime Minister, I would prefer we leave the EU with a trade deal. But I also know that if we want the right deal we must be prepared to walk away.

Make no mistake: we will need nerves of steel – most deals are done at the last minute. And if we have to leave with No Deal, so long as we are well prepared and ready to maximise our new found regulatory and trading freedoms, I believe we have little to fear.

THE biggest worry is that the country will r un s hort of f ood, medicine and manufacturing components. Ta l k of scarcity revolves around one issue – congestion at our ports. If there is no congestion there will be no shortages and no need for stockpiles. It really is that simple.

The excellent transitional arrangements for imports issued recently by HMRC have greatly simplified the process of bringing in goods from around the world.

Crucially, the move has meant that all the paperwork has been taken away from the ports.

Customs paperwork will need to be submitted after the goods have entered the country, 15 days after the end of each month. And no import customs paperwork will be required for the first six months of Brexit. This period of grace will

massively help stop gridlock at the border. Indeed, I believe that the six- month period of grace should be extended for smaller businesses for up to one year.

Ultimately, the flow of goods into the country is determined by our own rules and officials, and our Government has rightly made it clear they will do everything they can to prevent inbound stoppages.

Of course, securing the free flow of imports is only half the battle. Exports are also a concern. In the event of a No Deal, even if we left the gates open at our borders, British firms would be required to present export paperwork, which the EU demands when trading with non-EU states. Such paperwork may be unfamiliar to many British businesses.

A queue on the way out would be as bad as a queue on the way in, as it would jam up our ports and tie up the outbound vehicles later required to bring goods back.

This is our biggest challenge, but fortunately plans are afoot to deal with it. At all costs, queues of outbound traffic must be kept away from our key ports, particularly Dover. We must create regional triage points so that vehicles can have export paperwork cleared before they reach Kent. This would keep congestion away from our ports and make it much easier for those who do not have the required paperwork to turn around.

Much has been made about the possibility of rising consumer prices. The risk is that a No Deal devaluation of the pound increases import prices. But the shock of devaluation is unlikely to affect prices immediately.

Many companies hedge against the risk of currency fluctuation by buying it in advance. For example, Next has bought virtually all its currency for 2020, so any further devaluation of the pound would only affect prices in 2021.

Many of the shops that you spend money in will have taken similar precautions.

More importantly, Brexit will mean that the UK is freed from the EU’s anti-business stance and will be able to set its own tariff rates.

The provisional tariff rates issued by the last Government in March are a good start and will reduce consumer prices.

I estimate that the net effect of the UK’S new tariff regime will reduce clothing prices by about two per cent. But tariffs can and should be cut further on goods where the UK has no domestic production, such as baby wear.

Leaving the EU, with or without a deal, also presents us with an opportunity for a much better immigration system. Immigration can be hugely productive for a nation – economically and culturally.

Indeed, long before we joined the EU, my own family benefited from the UK’ S progressive approach to welcoming migrants. Now, regardless of a deal or not, we will again have the chance to set an immigration system that works for us.

WE NEED a system that plugs UK skills gaps at every level, brings enthusiastic and hardworking people to Britain and reduces the social and economic costs of less productive immigration.

There is still much to do to prepare for No Deal. But there will be huge opportunities to exploit once we have broken the shackles of EU regulation and its burdensome tariff regime.

There is one final danger. Even if we address ports, prices and people there is a real possibility that fear itself may damage our economy.

As we have seen with queues at petrol stations which followed the 2000 tanker dispute and bank runs in 2007, irrational hoarding or financial panic can create its own problems. It is vital we do not let this happen now.

The Government needs to kick start a virtuous circle of confidence. If food and drug companies believe the ports will run smoothly they will not need to stockpile. If they do not stockpile consumers are unlikely to do so either.

The risk is that pessimism and i naction become self- fulfilling prophesies, needlessly precipitating the very downturn that we all want to avert.

So the time has come for us to pull together. Whether you voted to Leave or Remain, want a deal or no deal, there can be no argument that the country is best placed to succeed if it prepares well.

In essence that means getting the four Ps right – Ports, Prices, People and Perception.

But I would go further. If Government prepares effectively for No Deal and if businesses follow suit; if we embrace an optimistic outward looking vision of Britain’s place in the world, at the forefront of free trading and democratic thought, then the worst we have to fear is mild disruption.

Ironically, it is this very confidence in the face of No Deal that is likely to deliver a deal with Europe, one that can command the support of the British people and see us move forward as an independent nation once again.

There will be huge opportunities to exploit once we have broken free from the EU’s shackles