Our world experts answer all your virus questions

All your latest coronavirus questions answered – by the world’s top experts

MoS HEALTH TEAM SPECIAL REPORT Eve Simmons, Sally Wardle and Rachel Reilly

LOCAL lockdowns, new travel restrictions and outbreaks across the country; in France, almost 2,000 new cases in 24 hours; in northern Spain, coronavirus hospitalisations double in ten days. So what’s next here – are we in the clear, or heading for disaster? We asked the experts for answers…

CASES of Covid-19 are rising across Britain but death rates continue to fall. What’s going on?

CASES are on the rise – on Thursday, 950 new cases were reported, compared to 846 on the same day the week before.

It’s the highest number since June 26 but it’s important to put this into perspective.

At the peak of the pandemic in April, the UK recorded 6,200 new cases daily, and the rises in the number of cases were far steeper. Experts say the amount of virus in circulation is now very low, making the risk of transmission highly unlikely for the average person.

The daily reported figures published by the Government are based on positive tests in hospitals and the wider community.

Positive cases in hospitals are still declining – it’s the community cases that are increasing. There have been outbreaks in places such as Leicester, Manchester, Aberdeen and Preston. Officials have been keeping a close eye on these spikes and ramping up test, track and trace – in Leicester they even tested non-symptomatic people.

So it’s no surprise, according to Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, that this picks up extra cases – particularly mild ones that may otherwise have gone undetected.

He says: ‘Reported cases are definitely going up day-on-day, but what proportion of that is a real increase and what proportion is a result of increased testing is difficult to say. For most parts of the country I think we are seeing a day-on-day decline, but not as rapidly as we were seeing.’

SO why aren’t people dying, if the infection is rife? Is the virus getting weaker?

THERE’S no good evidence that the virus is weakening. But data s hows deat hs f r o m Covid- 1 9 are still falling – 55 deaths were reported in the 24 hours to yesterday, down from 1,200 daily deaths at the peak of the pandemic.

Deaths in care homes are also dropping and the number admitted to hospitals in England has been below 100 every day since July 22 – down from more than 3,000 at the end of March.

‘This may be because we are seeing more of an increase in cases in younger individuals who are much less likely to be hospitalised or die,’ says epidemiologist Prof John Edmunds, at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

‘ It’s only when i nfections in younger people start getting passed on to older people that you start seeing more fatalities.’

Experts think this could take a while, or not happen at all, as older Britons are having far less close contact with family and friends.

However, some fear that the mismatch in trends – cases rising, as hospital admissions fall – may be the result of the time lag between infection, hospitalisation and death. ‘Hospital admissions l ag behind cases by another week o r mo r e , ’ P r o f Edmunds explains.

‘ Deaths l ag by two or three weeks at l east, or even l onger.’ For now, experts say there’s no need to panic. But if the rise in cases begins to affect the number of hospitalisations, and deaths, we may be in trouble.

IS THE hot weather protecting us? Will winter bring on another bout of infections?

NOT necessarily. Officials are concerned that infection rates may climb in winter, at a time when other viruses peak, potentially overwhelming the NHS. It’s been suggested this is because the hot weather has been suppressing the ferocity of the virus. Studies have shown that warmer climates have lower rates than colder ones, and research into flu shows the heat can kill viral cells. But the most recent Oxford University analysis concludes t hat t here i s n’t enough evidence to prove that the weather i t self worsens the s pr e a d. ‘It is i mposs i b l e to unpick the multiple reasons why the difference between hot and cold countries might have occurred,’ says public health expert Professor Sally Bloomfield from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. ‘It’s more likely that the fact we stay indoors in winter will have an impact, than any biological effect on the virus itself. ‘ While coronaviruses theoretically survive less well in the heat, we don’t yet know that this has limited t he s pread o f Covid- 1 9 . And Covid- 19 is surviving and spreading well in extremely hot climates across the US, Brazil, India and Africa.’

Q IS SPAIN in the middle of a second wave of infection? If so, surely it will hit us soon?

DESPITE the popularity of the phrase ‘ second wave’, experts believe this isn’t likely to happen.

It is far more accurate, they say, to refer to the small bouts of increased cases in the UK and elsewhere as continued ripples of the first wave. In other European countries, there are more ripples than in the UK – and they’re spreading more rapidly.

Last week, both France and Space reported new daily cases of almost 2,000 – the highest in two months. But what sets Spain apart from the UK i s the number of hospital deaths. Over the past few days, the number of fatalities has risen from ten to above 20.

Prof Hunter says it’s too early to say why it’s happened or what this means but it could be due to the fact that the number of infections was allowed to rise to such a high level. Because the UK outbreaks have so far been well traced, local authorities have quickly squashed them, stemming the spread.

Q HEALTH officials have suggested closing all pubs – are they really that dangerous?

A IT depends on the type of pub, a nd what you do in i t . The Chief Medical Officer suggested closing all pubs in exchange for opening schools last week, suggesting they posed a particular risk. This is because clusters of cases have been linked to pubs and bars – in Aberdeen and Staffordshire, for example.

But there’s nothing particularly risky about pubs in themselves.

Dr Jeremy Rossman, honorary senior lecturer in virology at the University of Kent, said there was a risk of transmission of the virus in any indoor setting where people are in close proximity and not wearing masks.

‘If the pub has outdoor seating, the risk is much more minimal,’ he says. ‘And if the pub is in a community in which few people have the virus, and it’s not spreading quickly, then it’s very low risk.’

Providing visitors don’t have too many drinks and forget the social