What’s the point of a 10pm curfew – and did local lockdowns work?
Q The 10pm curfew seems ridiculous – it’s not as if the virus has a watch and only transmits at certain times, is it? A A new 10pm curfew for pubs, bars and restaurants was introduced last week in England, Wales and Scotland as part of a package of new Covid-19 regulations.
The hope is that the measure will help reduce social contact between people and slow the spread of the virus.
But as pictures have surfaced of large groups spilling out on to streets at 10pm – and crowding on to public transport – experts have questioned the logic.
Some have rightly pointed out that the virus can spread at any time, day or night. Others have warned that drinkers will go out earlier, or head back to friends’ houses after closing time, where they are less likely to abide by social distancing.
Dr Stephen Griffin, associate professor in the school of medicine at the University of Leeds, is not convinced the curfew will be effective.
He said: ‘It runs the risk of compressing activity and having people leave at a single time in large numbers.’
Dr Jennifer Cole, biological anthropologist at Royal Holloway, University of London, is more hopeful.
‘The more drunk you are, the less inhibited and less riskaverse you are,’ she says.
‘Closing the bars and restaurants at 10pm simply keeps people more sober.
‘It gives them plenty of time for a meal, or a quick drink with friends after work, but means they are likely to be sober enough to remember to put on a face covering on the train or bus home, and to be careful around elderly relatives when they get home’.
Q Did the local lockdowns work? The new national measures seem to mimic those in areas with fast-rising cases like the North West.
A Although the UK avoided a national lockdown in the summer, smaller areas have been subject to stricter rules.
Data from Leicester and Greater Manchester – where local rules were imposed – give some idea of whether these restrictions worked.
From the end of June, Leicester residents from more than one household could not gather indoors, and shops, pubs and restaurants remained closed. Cases fell between June and July from 140 per 100,000 people to just 50 – and continued to fall even as pubs, restaurants, gyms and beauticians were gradually reopened throughout August.
However, they have risen again in recent weeks, in line with the rest of the country.
In Oldham, Greater Manchester, cases initially dropped from about 100 per 100,000 to 60. But they have also since risen again.
Experts say it is too early to tell if the curfews applied almost two weeks ago to parts of the North East have had an effect on the number of cases and spread of infection.
Overall, it seems that local lockdowns did help slow the rate of infection.
Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, says: ‘The problem is you can never really be 100 per cent sure that something you have introduced has slowed cases, or caused a decline.
‘But I think without doing anything, cases in Oldham would have accelerated more rapidly.’
He added that problems with the NHS test and trace service could have limited the effectiveness of the measures.
Q Why are our borders still open?
A At this stage of the pandemic, closing borders would have only a limited impact on the UK’s case numbers.
In February and March, there was significant debate about whether to halt international travel, and evidence has since suggested that the majority of UK cases were brought in from Europe – mainly Spain and France.
Perhaps then, before cases were widespread, closing the borders could have changed the course of the pandemic.
But the UK is in a very different position now, with the virus well-established across the country.
‘If we banned international travel today, it probably wouldn’t have any dramatic discernible effect,’ says Professor Hunter. ‘Yes, it would stop new cases coming into the country. But cases are accelerating anyway.
‘Once you have got a disease circulating in a country, banning international travel basically doesn’t do much.’