COVID Q&A

Where did new strain originate and is rise in cases due to more tests?

QWhere did the new strain come from?

AThe new variant was first detected in mid-October by the Government’s taskforce that tracks mutations in Covid-19. Samples that showed significant alterations were from London and Kent and had been collected in late September.

The most likely explanation for the variant is that a Covid-19 patient was infected with the virus for an unusually long period, during which time the virus could have adapted to the body, and mutated.

But Sharon Peacock, of the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium, said there is no evidence this mutation occurred in the UK.

QHave positive cases increased because there have been more tests?

ALast week, the UK achieved record levels of testing – more than 450,000 were completed on Tuesday alone. More tests will mean more positive cases but this doesn’t mean the numbers are skewed. Scientists account for the increased number of tests when computing the rising rate of infections. And more testing, including random testing on asymptomatic people, also provides a clearer picture of how many people do not have Covid, and can show where restrictions are working. Liverpool used mass testing to prove cases were low enough to allow them to move from tier 3 to tier 2.

QWhat proof is there that the new strain is spreading faster?

ALast week, Government scientific advisers said there was a ‘high’ likelihood the new strain was spreading at a faster rate than other variants. A number of factors suggest this could be the case.

The strain has been traced to London cases in September, and by November it accounted for a quarter of all cases.

By mid-December that number had risen to two-thirds.

The same pattern has been seen in Kent. Scientists identified mutations to the spike protein on the outer wall of the virus, which allows it to enter our body’s cells.

Changes to the spike protein often mean the virus has become more efficient at achieving this but scientists have cautioned against drawing firm conclusions as a host of other factors could be responsible for the surge in cases. The spread of any strain means people are not sticking to social-distancing rules.