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Scientists pour cold water on claim new strain may be 30pc more deadly

SENIOR scientists have poured cold water on claims that the new variant of coronavirus is more deadly than previous strains.

Boris Johnson stunned audiences watching the No 10 press briefing on Friday night by saying: ‘It now appears that there is some evidence that the new variant may be associated with a higher degree of mortality.’ Chief scientific officer Sir Patrick Vallance added that it could kill up to 30 per cent more of those it infected.

But influential scientists, including Public Health England (PHE) medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle, said yesterday such fears were premature and far more information was required before firm conclusions could be drawn.

Emphasising that it was not ‘absolutely clear’ that the Kent strain – named B117 – had a higher mortality rate, she told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘It is too early to say... There is some evidence, but it is very early evidence.’

She said the indication that it might be more deadly was based on ‘small numbers of cases and it is far too early to say this will actually happen’.

The 30 per cent figure came from the Government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats (Nervtag) committee, which analysed modelling from three universities and PHE.

Nervtag itself admitted there was uncertainty, describing higher mortality only as a ‘realistic probability’ – meaning it is 40 to 50 per cent likely to be true. Committee member Professor Robert Dingwall said the 30 per cent claim ‘rests on a very fragile and uncertain base of evidence’, adding: ‘It is right not to hide possibly bad news but it is also quite wrong to exploit it to increase public fear and to try to shut down debates about the exit strategy from the current restrictions.’

Another Government adviser, Dr Mike Tildesley, said he was ‘quite surprised’ by the announcement and recommended waiting ‘a week or two more... before we draw really strong conclusions’.

Meanwhile, a call by the British Medical Association to halve the delay between the two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech to six weeks was slapped down by Dr Doyle.

The BMA had written what was described as a private letter to Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty in which it argued that it was ‘ difficult to justify’ the 12-week interval due to concerns a single jab might offer only limited protection.

The letter, leaked to the BBC, warned: ‘The absence of any international support for the UK’s approach is a cause of deep concern and risks undermining public and the profession’s trust in the vaccination programme.’

But Dr Doyle backed the approach which is designed to maximise the number of vulnerable people getting their first jab sooner.

Pfizer tested the jab using a strict three-week gap between doses, but last month Ministers agreed to extend the interval up to 12 weeks to broaden coverage quickly amid restricted supply.

Explaining the BMA’s suggestion, chairman Dr Chaand Nagpaul told the BBC: ‘Obviously the protection will not vanish after six weeks, but what we do not know is what level of protection will be offered [after that point].’