Is it jabs or lockdown helping, and am I safe in a pub garden?

Q A

Have cases fallen because of the national lockdown or because of the vaccine rollout? Lockdown has been the biggest driving force behind the fall in Covid cases, but vaccines have helped too.

On Wednesday, commentators questioned Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s assertions that lockdown restrictions had done ‘the bulk of the work’ in reducing the disease.

But analysis of the data shows this to be largely true. The decline in cases since the peak in early January has followed roughly the same trajectory as the fall in cases during the first wave, when there were no vaccines. What’s more, at the point at which cases began to decline across all ages in early January, vaccinations were being offered to only the over-80s.

Even now, cases have plummeted in the under-60s, even though only one in every three people in this age group have had one vaccine dose. But for those over 60, there are clear signs that the vaccines have led to a marked decline in cases. Since the beginning of March, cases in over-60s have fallen at a faster rate than in the under-60s.

As increasing numbers develop Covid-19 antibodies via vaccination, it is hoped the rate of decline will accelerate further and across all age groups. Professor Tim Spector, epidemiologist at King’s College London, said vaccines ‘should prevent future large-scale outbreaks’ and ensure any sudden surges were ‘smaller’ and ‘manageable’.

Q A

What’s the risk of catching Covid in a pub garden? Low, but it is still important to be cautious. A study published last week found that outdoor transmission accounted for just 0.1 per cent of all Covid cases in Ireland. So, of the 232,164 Covid infections seen in Ireland since the beginning of the pandemic, only 262 were caught outdoors.

Scientists have for some time believed the risk of catching Covid outdoors to be low, due to the fact that even a small wind can disperse Covid particles, making it nearimpossible for them to travel from one person’s mouth to another’s.

Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: ‘Personally I do not worry about the risk of Covid outdoors and I don’t wear a mask outdoors unless I am in a particularly crowded place.’