Middle East on the Brink

LAST WEEKEND’s events, where hostilities between Iran and Israel erupted into the open, represent a moment of great danger, writes Jonathan Edwards MP.

Antonio Guterres, the Secretary General of the United Nations, spoke for the world when he called on all actors in the Middle East to step back from the brink following the Iranian missile and drone attack.

The regional war that many of us have feared since the despicable Hamas attacks on southern Israel and the subsequent obliteration of Gaza by Israel is now one step away from reality.

At this stage, there is no value in pointing fingers. When events spiral as they are, one act follows the other. If Israel decides to bomb Iranian territory, I fear their response will be the moment we reach the precipice.

Therefore, I welcome the emphasis over the weekend by most of the key external players on deescalation.

Western leaders and China spoke with one voice. The unified tone was most welcome. However, what worries me is that those external forces seem to have little influence over the actions of Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other.

All eyes will be on the Israeli Government.

Premier Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself in a precarious position. He is reliant on the support of ultra-nationalists in his cabinet and knows that his own political future depends on prolonging the crisis.

The West has proven completely incapable of influencing Israeli policy to date, hence the legitimate criticisms of carte blanche support by the West.

Meanwhile, Iran seems completely intent on upping the stakes. It is a malign force in the Middle East. It has created an extremely strong strategic position for itself through the use of proxies.

This week in the Commons, I signed a motion criticising the oppression of the Bahai religion within its borders.

Despite purchasing 90% of Iranian oil, it is unlikely China has direct influence over Iranian policy; otherwise, surely, it would have cautioned against the miscalculation of launching a direct attack on Israel.

The international focus was immediately shifted from IDF activity in Gaza to missiles and drones being fired at Israel from another Middle East state.

As Napolean once said, “never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”

I am heartened that there appears to be a dialogue between the US and China. Reliant on press reports, we can only speculate about how advanced those discussions are. I strongly believe we need those two countries to come up with a plan that they can sell to Israel and Iran.

It may well be the case that nothing can be done now to avert a full-on confrontation.

It might be that Israeli rage is such that its leaders have decided that they must face their enemies on all fronts for as long as it takes.

It could be that the Iranian regime and others have determined that they will never accept the legitimacy of the Israeli State and that the moment of destiny has arrived.

However, external actors must use all avenues possible to pull matters back from the brink, hoping that more sensible voices will prevail.

A possible roadmap could include an immediate cessation of violence in Gaza, the release of all remaining hostages, an international reconstruction plan for Gaza, and lastly, a political process to settle the Palestinian question, which is acceptable to the people of Israel and Palestinians.

As I said in the Commons this week, I welcome the British Government’s and others’ emphasis on calling for deescalation. However, the key to that is understanding that de-escalation must begin in Gaza.

This will all require an incredible diplomatic effort.

Is the impossible possible?

Who knows?

However, the consequences of failure are too dire to think about.