Gething warns of ‘fragility’ of Welsh devolution

THIS week marks a quarter of a century since the first elections to the then National Assembly in 1999, writes Jonathan Edwards MP.

I had just left University, and my first job was helping to organise Rhodri Glyn Thomas’s successful election campaign in the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr constituency.

It’s hard to imagine, but I remember a concerted campaign by some individuals within Plaid Cymru at the national level during that election who hoped Rhodri would lose and therefore deprive the then Leader of the Labour party in Wales, Alun Michael, a Mid and West Regional seat. As it happened, Rhodri Glyn won by a country mile, and Alun Michael was elected from the list.

The rest is history, but this episode should have taught Plaid Cymru at the national level to never interfere in Carmarthenshire politics. I suspect they will be taught another one soon, come the General Election.

I come from a position of being an inherent supporter of more powers for Wales.

I would campaign and vote in favour if there was an independence referendum tomorrow.

My fundamental political belief is that the people of Wales, like any other nation, should govern itself.

After over a decade in Westminster, I have little faith that London control will ever work in the interests of Wales.

I don’t think this is a deliberate act, as some would argue. However, I think Wales, like other peripheral parts of the UK, suffers from neglect. Wealth is largely concentrated in the Southeast, and as the famous Welsh saying goes, ‘i’r pant y rhed y dwr’—the water flows to the valley.

Independence would allow a reconfiguration of power and the pooling of sovereignty across the British Isles and beyond to Europe. We, as a people, would decide where we want to cooperate. Hopefully, Wales, Scotland, a united Ireland, and England would move together based on equality and respect.

Can Wales afford independence? This is often the argument that gets thrown back.

On day one, Wales would be a mid-ranking European nation in terms of wealth.

We would undoubtedly face serious fiscal challenges. However, just compare Welsh economic performance and the Republic of Ireland over recent decades—it will make your eyes water. I would rather take responsibility for myself than observe longterm managed decline.

As a pragmatist, I have always favoured a more gradual approach based on devolving fiscal powers to Wales so that our government has the job creation leavers and the responsibility to improve our economic performance.

Without creating betterpaid jobs in Wales, we have little hope of dealing with our multiple social problems, not least the flight of our young people.

Brexit allowed the devolution of key fiscal leavers such as VAT and Corporation Tax, but those who pushed Brexit in London were not interested in Brexit freedoms; it was always a Westminster centralisation project.

Alas, no political party will contest the next General Election on such a prospectus. That leaves politicians like me and a growing proportion of the Welsh population with nowhere to go but to argue for full-fat devolution.

While manifestoes have yet to be published, it seems safe to speculate that none of the UK parties will propose a radical devolution settlement favoured by some Labour members of the Senedd.

We will be lucky if the Labour Party forms the next UK government and devolves the youth justice and probation services to Wales.

Labour in power at the UK level will leave its Welsh flank exposed if it shows limited ambition. In Scotland, it will see turbochargers placed beneath the independence movement.

If you stand still, you fall backwards, and I fear that is the state of the constitutional debate in Wales now.

Plaid Cymru has propped up the Labour Government in Wales and achieved nothing in advancing the Welsh national question.

Sure, they have secured Senedd enlargement. I am just not sure that it is a good argument to celebrate 36 more politicians in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis.

Personally, I am not interested in more politicians. I am in the business of winning powers.

To gain this ‘ win’, Plaid have had to concede a dodgy closed list voting system, which I fear will be deeply damaging to devolution.

Electors will no longer vote directly for their Senedd Members.

Central party bureaucrats will have power over selecting Elected Members, promoting subservience and partisan loyalty over ability.

If current Plaid Cymru strategists think that the good people of Wales will use their one vote tactically in multi-member constituencies, they are completely deluded. The new system could well end up entrenching Labour power in Wales.

More worrying for prodevolutionists, I suspect that this new system will make Senedd Members completely aloof from the communities they serve.

There is a world of difference between being a directly elected politician and serving a ‘region’. I can understand the attraction. List members can disappear without trace following election day and get back in on the party ticket next time. When you are directly elected, this is more difficult.

More worryingly, this change will make Westminster Parliament members, despite a reduction to only 32 Welsh members, by far the most visible and recognised politicians in their respective communities.

There is a growing feeling in our communities that Senedd Members are increasingly aloof and out of touch. The scrutiny of their work is minuscule, and the new electoral system will make accountability far harder.

In 1999, there was euphoric anticipation that anything would be possible for Wales.

25 years of devolution has dissipated that belief.

We must recapture those heady feelings and get Senedd Members out of Cardiff Bay.

Rather than more Senedd Members and a deeply damaging voting system, what about holding one plenary session each month in other parts of our country.

Carmarthen would be a great location for the West, Aberystwyth for Mid Wales, and Conwy for the North. This would do far more to connect devolution with the people of Wales than what is currently proposed and hopefully make the case that devolution is a project for the whole of our country and not a self-serving elite in Cardiff Bay.

Wales is on the razor’s edge. The years after the General Election should be fertile political ground for the nationalist movement in Wales.

Labour in government at the UK and Welsh levels offers nowhere for the establishment party in our country to hide.

Worryingly, it will also conversely be fertile territory for the populist Tory right that will surely emerge from the ashes of their Tory General Election defeat.

Does the nationalist movement in Wales have the thinkers of the skill and ability to chart a course through the new political landscape that will soon be upon us?

That is the question that should worry anyone who wants to see Wales develop as a political nation.