The Press and Journal (Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire)
‘Movement on Brexit talks not guaranteed’
Politics: EU leaders may not want to progress, May to be warned
Theresa May will be told that it is “not a given” that the EU will agree to move on to Brexit trade talks next month, as Brussels pushes for more information from her on key issues including the divorce bill the UK will pay to the EU.
The prime minister will hold talks with European Council president Donald Tusk and Ireland’s prime minister Leo Varadkar.
The prime minister will meet Mr Tusk and the Taoiseach in the margins of a major European summit in Gothenburg today. European Union sources suggested that Mr Tusk will tell her that although internal preparations had begun on preparing for the second phase of Brexit talks, covering a transitional deal and the future relationship the UK will have with Brussels, it could not be taken for granted that leaders will agree to move on.
Mrs May hopes December’s European Council summit will see leaders give the green light to talks on a post-Brexit trade deal.
But a Brussels source said: “Mr Tusk will inform Mrs May that such a positive scenario is not a given, it will require more work and that time is short.
“And he will ask Mrs May how the UK plans to progress on the three key issues for phase one.”
The three issues where “sufficient progress” must be made include the financial settlement, citizens’ rights and the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.
The Taoiseach is likely to emphasise that progress is possible in December but “only if all sides show sufficient political will”, sources in Dublin indicated.
Mr Varadkar will use his meeting to emphasise the importance of upholding all aspects of the Good Friday Agreement, including the power-sharing institutions, and will continue to urge the Northern Ireland parties to reach agreement.
The prime minister held talks with her Swedish counterpart Stefan Lofven last night.
A Downing Street spokesman said: “Both leaders said they wanted to see further positive discussions ahead of the December European Council.”
If leaders do not agree to move to the second phase at the summit in Brussels on December 14-15, then it could mean no progress until the next scheduled European Council in March – adding to business uncertainty and increasing the potential for the UK to leave without a Brexit deal.
“Leaders said they wanted to see further discussions”
An economic think-tank claims Brexit poses a “severe threat” to fishing communities.
The New Economics Foundation (NEF) says in a controversial report today the UK’s withdrawal from the EU will “almost certainly have a negative economic impact on large parts of Britain’s fishing industry”.
It also claims Brexit could lead to an increase in overfishing, with “disastrous” environmental and economic results, as a result of the UK taking more quota.
Industry chiefs reacted with derision as details of the report – Not in the Same Boat: The Economic Impact of Brexit across UK Fishing Fleets – started to circulate, with one saying its author was “detached from reality”.
According to NEF, whose biggest backer is Switzerland-based philanthropic organisation the Oak Foundation, quota-less fishing boats, processors, retailers and wholesalers will all be worse off under nearly all Brexit scenarios.
Any of the more likely outcomes would see some fishers – mainly small boats – do far worse than others, while processors, wholesalers and retailers would become “highly exposed” to the risks of trade barriers.
NEF senior researcher Griffin Carpenter said: “Brexit poses a severe threat to Britain’s fishing communities as the majority of ports receive most of their landings from vessels that do not hold quota but do export to the EU market.”
Scottish Fishermen’s Federation chief executive Bertie Armstrong said: “The author of this report is so detached from reality that he has done serious harm to his organisation’s credibility. The suggestion that Brexit could lead to overfishing is just plain daft.”
Meanwhile, the House of Commons environment, food and rural affairs committee has launched a new inquiry into UK fisheries. It will look at how changes to trading arrangements between the UK and the EU will affect the industry.