Troubling times for Tories and an opportunity for Sturgeon

Politically, the SNP will feel it has much to gain from the latest Westminster Brexit crisis.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon fired off multiple warning shots yesterday as she demanded urgent talks with UK ministers and claimed Theresa May’s proposed deal had “ignored Scotland, sidelined Scotland, and cast aside Scotland’s interests”.

The SNP flagged-up that Scotland had not merited a mention in the 585-page withdrawal plan and unionists were concerned the proposal to allow a separate regulatory regime for Northern Ireland will fuel demands for a similar arrangement for Scotland.

Equally, the move to avoid a hard border within Ireland will be highlighted the next time it is suggested that a hard border would be required between England and an independent Scotland.

The turmoil facing the Scottish Conservatives – including Aberdeen South MP Ross Thomson telling Scottish Secretary David Mundell “no unionist” could support the current proposals – must also delight Ms Sturgeon and her colleagues.

Having made gains at last year’s general election, particularly in the north-east, the Tories are terrified by the political consequences of being accused of selling out the fishing industry once again.

Mr Mundell has said he was convinced the deal would still pave the way for the UK to exit the hated Common Fisheries Policy by the end of 2020, while Mrs May said she would not accept EU attempts to link access to fishing waters to trade.

But much appears up in the air, after the Brexit plan called for a new fisheries agreement to be negotiated and industry leaders have demanded clarity.

Despite being on the front foot yesterday, Ms Sturgeon also knows controversy over the draft agreement puts her under pressure to act on a second independence referendum while the UK Government is so weak and dysfunctional.

Scottish Greens leader Patrick Harvie challenged her to fire the starting gun at first minister’s questions yesterday.

Ms Sturgeon said “people deserve clarity about what else might unfold over the next period” before discussing a timetable for a vote.

Given the pace of events at Westminster in the last 48 hours, a potential new prime minister, general election or even a “people’s vote”, the fear for Nationalists is such clarity could be a long time coming.