The Press and Journal (Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire)
Brexit reassurance at business briefing
Finance: Expert thinks economy can cope with no-deal outcome
The economy will not fall into recession in the case of a no-deal Brexit as businesses are well prepared to leave the EU, a leading economist said yesterday.
Debapratim De, senior economist at Deloitte, was speaking at The P&J’s latest business briefing, held at Norwood Hall Hotel in Aberdeen.
Mr De was joined on the panel by Scottish Enterprise’s David Rennie and Graeme Roy, professor at the Fraser of Allander Institute, and the trio discussed their predictions around the economic future of Scotland, the UK and the world.
Opening the event, which was sponsored by Deloitte Private and Turcan Connell, Mr De said there were a number of different forecasts for the UK, but he had chosen to focus on a report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
He said: “Under a no-deal Brexit, the NIESR forecast is for 1% growth this year, and actually for it just being flat next year, so there would be no prolonged recession next year in the case of a nodeal Brexit. This was quite surprising to me as I have been following the NIESR forecast for some time and they had put out a forecast before this one in April that suggested a recession under a no-deal Brexit next year.
“So I looked at the report and spoke to them about why they had seen this improvement and it’s largely because they account for businesses preparing or having already prepared for a nodeal Brexit and for a fiscal stimulus package that the government has much touted.
“There was account for the bank making a statement in June that rates are likely to be cut if the UK left the EU without a deal. All these factors have led to them revising their forecast slightly upward.”
Mr Roy added: “Yes, Brexit is a challenge but it’s not the only challenge we face. Our economy has been lagging behind for some time so they key point is it’s not just about Brexit.”
Mr Rennie said Scottish Enterprise was on hand to help businesses through uncertain times.
He said: “Our role is to help stimulate the economy and attract investment. In terms of Brexit, it’s about trying to stimulate the curiosity and the need to prepare.”
“Yes, Brexit is a challenge but it’s not the only challenge we face”