The Press and Journal (Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire)
Expert says Trump win theoretically possible, but practically difficult
US president Donald Trump could still have a path to the 270 electoral college votes he needs to win re-election but it will require everything to break in his direction a second time, experts say.
Voters in battleground states will need to overwhelmingly swing in his favour and Mr Trump will have to win back crucial voting blocs to secure victory, they said. It is likely his turnout will also need to outperform Democrat rival Jo e Biden’s on account of ballots already cast.
Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster, said: “In 2016, his chances of winning the election were those of drawing an inside straight in poker.
“The question this year is whether he can draw an inside straight two hands in a row. It is theoretically possible but practically difficult.”
While Mr Trump has multiple roads to victory, his most likely route hinges on winning Florida and Pennsylvania.
If he can claim both and hold on to other sunbelt states he narrowly carried in 2016 – North Carolina and Arizona – while playing defence in Georgia and Ohio, which he won handily in 2016 but where Mr Biden is now competitive, he will win.
Mr Trump’s campaign is also continuing to pour time and money into Wisconsin and Michigan, long- time Democratic strongholds he flipped by the slimmest of margins four years ago, while trying to grab Nevada and Minnesota, two states his 2016 rival Hillary Clinton narrowly won. But polling shows Mr Trump trailing or closely matched in nearly every state he has to win to reach 270 electoral college votes.
Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said, barring a major upset, the president needs to hold on to at least one of the three rustbelt states he won in 2016 – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan.
Fox News polls released on Wednesday show Mr Biden with a clear advantage in Michigan and a slight one in Wisconsin.
For all of that, though, Mr Trump’s team can draw comfort from this historical footnote – in all three states, Hillary Clinton led in the polls in the final weeks of 2016.
But the president ’ s “fundamental problem”, according to Mr Ayres, “is that a large number of states that he won comfortably last time” are currently close.
With 29 electoral votes, Florida is arguably the most crucial state for Mr Trump. While polling early this month showed Mr Biden with a slight advantage, two recent polls have the candidates neck-and-neck.
It is in Florida where Mr Trump himself will vote in person tomorrow, taking advantage of the state’s early voting period. The polling station is a short drive from his residence at Mar-a-Lago.