Pandemic labelled ‘lost opportunity’ to speed up energy transition

A leading technical body has lamented the Covid-19 pandemic as a “lost opportunity” for speeding up the energy transition.

A new forecast from DNV has warned that even if all electricity suddenly became green, the world would still fall a “long way short” of being net-zero by 2050.

DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook, now in its fifth year, provides an independent forecast of developments in the global energy system, up to 2050.

It says that Covid-19 recovery packages have “largely focused” on “protecting rather than transforming” existing industries, meaning a chance to accelerate decarbonisation has been squandered.

According to DNV, formerly DNV GL, electrification is on course to double in size within a generation, with renewables already proving the most competitive source of new power.

However, forecasts show global emissions will only drop by 9% by 2030, with the 1.5C carbon budget agreed by global economies as part of the Paris Agreement emptied by then.

The milestone deal, signed at COP21, was designed to keep global warming to “well below 2C” and strive to limit its increase to 1.5C.

And while DNV has been consistent in forecasting a rapid transition to a decarbonised energy system by mid-century, it is “definitively not fast enough” for the world to achieve the ambitions set out by the Paris Agreement.

Remi Eriksen, CEO of the Norwegian organisation, said: “Many of the pandemic recovery packages have largely focused on protecting, rather than transforming, existing industries. A lot of ‘building back’ as opposed to ‘building better’ and although this is a lost opportunity, it is not the last we have for transitioning faster to a deeply decarbonized energy system.”

DNV says electrification is on track to double in size.