The Press and Journal (Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire)
These are strange times indeed for humankind
As humankind drives relentlessly towards climate catastrophe, just a few days ago, the International Energy Agency offered a crumb of comfort regarding CO2 emissions.
It says the global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing “profound and long-lasting changes that have the potential to hasten the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system”.
In March, as the war was starting, the agency reported that global energy-related CO2 emissions rose by 6% in 2021 to 36.3 billion tonnes (their highest ever level) because of the Covid-19 crisis rebound.
Indeed, the leap in global CO emissions of
2 over two billion tonnes was the largest in history in absolute terms, more than offsetting the previous year’s pandemicinduced decline and despite adverse weather and energy market conditions, with gas price spikes driving up coal demand and, so, CO2 emissions.
But now the IEA sees a remarkable change and predicts that, despite the war and the energy crisis it precipitated, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are expected to grow just under 1% this year – a small fraction of their increase last year.
Indeed, the rise in global CO2 emissions this year would be much larger – close to 1 billion tonnes – were it not for the major deployments of renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles (EVs) globally, claims the IEA.
But quite what will happen next year is in the lap of the gods.
Lately, gas prices have miraculously eased, even in Europe, which has been hit hard by the raft of sanctions imposed by Brussels on Moscow leading to supplies of energy from Russia being drastically curtailed.
But coal mining is on the rise again, to the point Germany is demolishing a wind farm plus a dozen nearby villages and hamlets to enable a vast new open-cast pit to the northwest of Cologne.
The Garzweiler II mine is expected to yield about 190 million tonnes of lignite to fuel thermal power stations mothballed pending scrapping. Global CO emissions
2 from coal-fired power generation are set to grow by more than 200 million tonnes, or 2%, this year, led by increases in Asia. However, the IEA says the relatively small increase has been considerably outweighed by the expansion of renewables.
Global energy trends have also been affected by the impacts of Russia’s war on the world economy, significantly dampening expectations for economic growth, notably in Europe.
But while there is a scramble to rehab Old King Coal, the good news is growth in solar and wind is filling much of the gap. It seems policy actions by governments to protect their economies really are driving structural changes in energy.
But not every government is displaying foresight.
Like the UK, for example, where some extraordinarily stupid decisions have been made by the Tory regime that has had three PMs in less than two months – Johnson, Truss and Sunak.
They claim to be taking a joined-up approach to solving our current energy problems and so offshore oil & gas is getting a shedload of help. Even hydrogen is starting to get a look-in, and carbon capture and storage too.
Sacked PMs Boris Johnson and Liz Truss wanted to bring back shale gas prospecting; Sunak has cancelled the idea. Good decision.
But as for encouraging onshore renewables development in England, it’s a joke. The Tories don’t like solar or onshore wind farms. They want everything out of sight, out of mind in the North Sea. Their preference is monster wind-driven power stations located offshore. Community and commercial-scale projects onshore can basically go hang.
I fail to detect real cohesion. True joined-up, long-term strategic policy. That’s simply not the British way. At least in England.
Thankfully, there’s more sense afoot in Scotland and Wales. Indeed, the Welsh government has decided to set up a state-owned onshore renewables company – something that Scotland should consider too.
However, is wind about to take a turn? Is there a dangerous shortfall in investment emerging, at least for onshore projects?
Well, according to tracking by WindEurope, turbine orders in Q3 2022 fell by 36% compared with Q3 2021.
It warns that Europe urgently needs strengthen its wind energy supply chain, and points the finger at inflationary cost pressures, slow permitting and uncertainty round the EU’s emergency electricity market interventions for stalling orders.
It’s a lot worse here in Little Britain, where just about everything to do with low-carbon energy is bought in from overseas with very little serious UK-owned highend manufacturing taking place. That’s a pity.