The Press and Journal (Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire)
Expert view on question of IndyRef2
The Supreme Court is today set to make a decision which could have profound consequences for Scotland’s immediate future in the UK.
Nicola Sturgeon might end up less than a year away from a referendum, or she could be sent back to the drawing board.
Polling experts, strategists and politicians gathered at Glasgow University and gave their thoughts about what could happen next.
1. THE POLLING GURU
Professor Sir John Curtice said: “The first answer we might possibly get is no answer, which will leave everybody still arguing about the issues.”
Prof Curtice thinks the SNP took an unusual approach by going to the Supreme Court before a vote in Holyrood.
The Strathclyde University expert said Ms Sturgeon had gone to the courts because Scotland’s top law officer, the Lord Advocate, was “clearly unsure” about whether a referendum is viable.
He said: “This is Nicola Sturgeon and the Lord
Advocate trying to get themselves off that hook.”
2. THE LABOUR 2014 VETERAN
The first minister’s plan, should the Supreme Court rule against a referendum, is to turn the next UK election into a vote on independence.
But ex-Scottish Labour chief Kezia Dugdale thinks this will be difficult for the SNP due to the cost-ofliving crisis.
She said: “I think the SNP’s tactics at the start of the summer were very smart but I think the world has changed significantly over the summer.
“It will be incredibly difficult for the SNP to set the strain of the next election. They will have to revisit that strategy.”
3. THE ‘NOW IS NOT THE TIME’ HIGHLAND TORY
Highland Tory MSP Donald Cameron said: “I’ve spent my professional life as a lawyer thinking I’ve known which way the court judgment is going to go and been proven wrong. I’m not going to hazard a guess.
“There is a third possibility which shouldn’t be discounted, which is that they say it’s not for them to rule upon.” He is confident his party can stave off a vote and believes most Scots would rather focus on other priorities.
4. THE EYE-ON-THE PRIZE EX MP
Former North East Fife MP Stephen Gethins, who now works at St Andrews University, said the push for independence will go on even if the Supreme Court rejects the case for a referendum.
The ex-SNP politician said: “Regardless of what’s said, independence isn’t going away. The SNP were elected on a commitment to hold an independence referendum.”
5. THE PATIENT YES CAMPAIGN STRATEGIST
Stephen Noon, who was head strategist for the Yes campaign, thinks it’s likely judges will either rule against the SNP or refuse to reach a verdict.
But despite his support for independence, he wants to see a referendum delayed. Mr Noon, who now works at Edinburgh University, said: “We haven’t yet done the nationbuilding necessary to have another referendum.”