Fatalities at hospital outstrip prediction

Healthcare: Increased deaths put down to palliative patients

More people died at Belford Hospital in Fort William at the start of the year than health chiefs expected, new figures have revealed.

NHS Highland bosses believe that a disproportionate number of patients being admitted for palliative care at the Lochaber hospital may have had an impact on the rise.

The latest statistics released by NHS Scotland reveal that 30 people had died at Belford Hospital between January and the end of March, compared to a predicted 23.

Each health authority in the country is asked to produce mortality rate predictions compared to previous years.

While the death rate at Belford Hospital was higher than expected, the number at Raigmore Hospital in Inverness was less, with 221 deaths compared to the expected 234.

But the death rate at the north’s flagship hospital rose from 2.4% to 3.1% – the highest level since 2011 which is as far back as the figures go.

Across Scotland, there has been a 9.6% decline in the ratio of predicted to observed deaths.

For the past year, the Belford has had 93 deaths while predicting 87. Raigmore has predicted 896 deaths, but only had

768.

An NHS Highland spokesman said it was not possible to be certain of the reason for the rising trends given the complexity of the factors involved in doing

“I do not have concerns about the level of care at the Belford”

the calculations, but he added: “We are aware of a disproportionate number of patients being admitted to the Belford Hospital for palliative care which can affect the figures.

“The board monitors both HSMR (hospital standardised mortality ratios) quarterly and crude mortality monthly and conducts a review on every death occurring in our acute hospitals, including Raigmore and Belford.

“No concerns have emerged from recent reviews and none of our hospitals are flagging as an outlier for HSMR within Scotland.”

Highlands and Islands regional MSP David Stewart said: “I would hope that the NHS board reviews every death occurring in their acute hospitals and if any trend is identified then it would be acted upon immediately.

“It is important to establish that there is not such a pattern or trend and I would hope that the board look closely again and review all the surrounding circumstances relating to these HSMRs figures.”

Lochaber and Skye MSP Kate Forbes added: “I visited the Belford Hospital this week and met a number of the hardworking staff who deliver exceptional care to patients in Fort William.

“I understand that these figures are released regularly and NHS Highland take note of them.

“However I do not have concerns about the level of care at the Belford Hospital which I think is a vitally important rural general hospital.”