The Press and Journal (Inverness, Highlands, and Islands)
Trillions ‘still needed for oil industry investment’
● BP’s chief economist says large-scale production required
The world still needs “trillions of dollars of investment” in oil as industries and governments get to grips with the energy transition, BP’s chief economist said yesterday.
Presenting the oil and gas giant’s latest Energy Outlook report, Spencer Dale said new, large-scale oil production was central to the move to a low-carbon economy.
He did, however, predict a “plateauing” of oil demand by 2030.
Mr Dale also outlined BP’s “rapid transition” plan, where “policy measures” contribute to a 45% reduction in carbon emissions by 2040 – broadly in line with Paris Climate Change goals.
Oil majors are coming under growing pressure to make renewable and low-carbon technologies a bigger part of their business.
Earlier this month, BP vowed to improve its reporting of how operations fit in with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Mr Dale said: “The world will need substantial amounts of new energy if it is to grow and prosper – but there’s no easy solution.
“All the scenarios suggest investment will be needed in new oil production over the next 20 years to meet levels of demand. Our rapid transition scenario would still require many trillion of dollars of investment in new oil. Without that investment the world would not even be close to delivering on the new energy transition.”
He said he expected renewables to account for just 15% of global energy demand by 2040, adding: “Even with renewables accounting for twothirds of the energy mix, something has to account for the rest, with oil and gas accounting for 50% of primary energy in 2040.”
BP chief executive Bob Dudley said renewables “matter” to the company.
Mr Dudley added: “A real step change is needed to get carbon emissions going in the right direction. There’s no silver bullet to solving the dual challenge. Many forms of energy will be needed. While we know what’s needed for the transition, we don’t know what path it’s going to take – I would say no one does.”