PATRICK KRAUSE

“Interesting times” does not capture the feelings of dread and trepidation that accompanies the installation of the new prime minister, Boris Johnson.

The PM has fortified his Cabinet with Brexiteers in order to implement his pledge to drag the UK out of the EU on October 31 come what may, deal or no deal.

Is it a bluff ? Regardless, the administrations of the four UK nations are having to put in place contingency plans should the worst case scenario become a reality – that we “crash out” of the EU without a formal withdrawal agreement.

While it is designed to manage the immediate crisis as best as possible, contingency planning does not resolve the longer-term problems of finding ourselves without mobility, trading and customs agreements with the EU. The immediate issues for Scotland’s livestock sector will be transport disruption, tariffs and the lack of staff in the meat industry, especially vets and abattoir staff. It is widely agreed that the sheep industry in Scotland will never be the same again, even if the no-deal situation isn’t for ever.

Are there any silver linings? During the leadership contest, Mr Johnson made it clear that he supported the return of the £160 million “convergence uplift” that has been denied Scotland.

To remind you: the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) set a threshold of 90% of the EU average payment rate per hectare that all member states should reach. The UK’s average rate per hectare fell below the 90% threshold because of Scotland’s very low average payment rate, which is only about 45% of the EU average. As a consequence, the UK will receive an extra 223 million euros (about £190m) between 2014-2020.

Scottish Government and stakeholders have long argued the funding should come to Scotland in its entirety. The UK Government stance has been that the funding gets divided up among the four UK nations, with Scotland getting £30m, despite this approach not being in line with the European Commission’s rationale for the uplift.

Mr Johnson has pledged that Scottish farmers and crofters will get the £160m in “back payments” and Scottish Government will be consulted on ways to deliver this funding to farmers as quickly as possible.

Mr Johnson has also promised Scotland millions in subsidies once the UK leaves the European Union as “Scottish farmers have been particularly poorly treated”.

Will Prime Minister Johnson, the new Defra Secretary, Theresa Villiers, and the new Secretary of State for Scotland, Alister Jack, honour these pledges?