Johnson bluff looking likely to yet pay off

Ina week we have gone from Boris Johnson claiming trade talks with the EU are over, to predictions from both sides that a final deal will be reached in weeks.

This is good news for farming , since key sectors would have been badly hit by a no-deal outcome. It begs the question as to what has changed – and the answer seems to be nothing, beyond an infusion of common sense and economic logic in London and Brussels.

T he outcome confirms that Johnson was playing a game of bluff, which few took seriously. The EU has said it will compromise in some areas, including fishing , provided the UK does the same, but it has stuck to its negotiating mandate.

Time will tell what emerges, but the UK remains on course for a outcome similar to, or possibly worse, than the deal negotiated by Theresa May. A trade deal based around the current single market could well limit government plans to allow cheap food that does not meet UK or EU standards on to supermarket shelves.

EU farm ministers have agreed the shape of the future CAP, watering down some of the controversial elements to increase flexibility for farmers and member states. This will now go into so-called trilogue discussions between the farm council of national ministers, the European Parliament and European Commission.

T he system will remain rooted in direct payments, with a new green element that at least 20% of Pillar One payments must be for eco schemes. A third of rural development payments will have togo into similar green schemes.

The EU definition of an active farmer remains a member state’s responsibility, and capping payments at 100,000 euro will be voluntary rather than compulsory. This adds to a sense that ministers have swung away from the commission’s radical green thinking towards the status quo, although that will be fought over in the trilogue sessions. While the UK continues to seek new farm support structures, farmers in the EU 27 now have some assurance about their future support model.

The European Commission has announced plans to streamline its protected origin scheme for food products. This covers PDO (protected designation of origin), PGI (protected geographical indication) and TSG (traditional speciality guarantee) quality marks.

These will be harmonised into a single name, which the EU says will be easier for consumers to understand, so giving the designation more marketing value in home and export markets. A separate quality market for EU wines and spirits will remain in place.

PROGRESS: EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has agreed to Brexit compromises.