World could face fertility crisis – study

More than three out of four countries may have a shrinking population by the middle of the century due to “tumbling” fertility rates, research suggests.

And by 2100, more than 97% of countries – 198 out of 204 – will have fertility rates below what is necessary to sustain population size over time, according to a study published in The Lancet.

The analysis in the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors study predicts that subSaharan Africa will account for one in every two children born on the planet by the end of the century.

Meanwhile in Western Europe, the total fertility rate – the average number of children born to women of childbearing age – is predicted to be 1.44 in 2050, dropping to 1.37 in 2100.

In the UK, the total fertility rate was 2.19 in 1950, dropping to 1.85 in 1980 and then 1.49 in 2021.

That is well below the rate of 2.1 needed to maintain a steady population without significant immigration.

By 2050, the UK’s total fertility rate is predicted to be 1.38, dropping to 1.30 by 2100.

The researchers said the findings pose “serious challenges” to global economic growth, especially in the midst of a shrinking workforce and ageing populations.

They said that for countries with low fertility rates, social policies such as enhanced parental leave, free childcare and extra employment rights may provide a small boost but most nations would remain below the levels needed to sustain their populations.

Dr Natalia V Bhattacharjee, co-lead author and lead research scientist from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine in the US, said: “The implications are immense.”