Have a leap of faith with Harry Angel
THERE are some interesting trends for the Champion Stakes at Ascot today (3.50).
Firstly, you would have made a £22 profit to £1 stakes just backing every contender than won last time out in the past 20 years.
You would only be supporting relative outsider Monarchs Glen today if following that advice. A possibly more useful stat is that only three of those 20 winners were out of the first three last time out.
So from the contenders today we can rule out Capri, Verbal Dexterity, Rhododendron, Maverick Wave and Subway Dancer.
That has quickly cut them down to just three before we look at official ratings and the downfall of Monarchs Glen. He is a little short of the usual class on 118.
So, rather predictably, we are left with the big two on form — Cracksman and Crystal Ocean.
You might think Cracksman’s 122-day absence would be a negative but two of the past five winners had been off the track for roughly the same amount of time.
On the trends there is very little to separate them and at the prices, it may be that Crystal Ocean makes sense as he’s around 5-2 rather than the 5-6 of his rival.
But CRACKSMAN has a perfect winning record on soft ground and that can make the difference. He is also trying to follow up last year’s victory and there have been a lot of repeat winners of the Champion Stakes.
Champions Day really does live up to its name with the Sprint at 2.00 another race worthy of any big Saturday.
The main trends for this race are to stick with distance winners — as the whole field are today — while outsiders beyond 121 have a poor record.
You must have won a Listed race, while horses aged three and four have the strongest record.
A win last time out is a negative and you want to look for horses that have won within the past 50 days.
Winning form at Ascot is not necessary, but some experience of the track is important. Most of these have been here before thanks to the Royal meeting.
So looking at the lineup, it’s not that easy to find a horse aged three or four who is near the head of the betting and ticks the other boxes.
One that does is HARRY ANGEL. We need a little leap of faith because this former superstar has lost a little of his lustre with too poor efforts since winning at York in May.
He is a proven Group 1 horse who likes soft ground and has finished second at Group 1 level at Ascot. On balance, and looking at the prices, he is worth a small investment.
The QEII Stakes at 3.15 looks a cracker and there are some good trends to guide our way.
Any horses aged older than five have a mountain to climb while eight of the past 10 winners have been north of 120 in the official ratings.
That has done what trends fans like to see and reduced the big field to just two contenders — Roaring Lion and Recoletos.
Both can boast a Group 1 win and a victory over the mile distance, although Roaring Lion has been beaten on his past three runs over this trip.
That, along with the forecast soft ground, tips the scales in favour of RECOLETOS.
He did well to score in the highest company at Longchamp last time over this distance. His best form has come with plenty of give in the ground and his poor run at the Royal meeting came in unsuitably quick conditions.
Worth a small investment: Harry Angel