Have a leap of faith with Harry An­gel

The Racing Paper - - Trends And Diary - By John An­thony

THERE are some in­ter­est­ing trends for the Cham­pion Stakes at As­cot to­day (3.50).

Firstly, you would have made a £22 profit to £1 stakes just back­ing ev­ery con­tender than won last time out in the past 20 years.

You would only be sup­port­ing rel­a­tive out­sider Monar­chs Glen to­day if fol­low­ing that ad­vice. A pos­si­bly more use­ful stat is that only three of those 20 win­ners were out of the first three last time out.

So from the con­tenders to­day we can rule out Capri, Ver­bal Dex­ter­ity, Rhodo­den­dron, Mav­er­ick Wave and Sub­way Dancer.

That has quickly cut them down to just three be­fore we look at of­fi­cial rat­ings and the down­fall of Monar­chs Glen. He is a lit­tle short of the usual class on 118.

So, rather pre­dictably, we are left with the big two on form — Cracks­man and Crys­tal Ocean.

You might think Cracks­man’s 122-day ab­sence would be a neg­a­tive but two of the past five win­ners had been off the track for roughly the same amount of time.

On the trends there is very lit­tle to sep­a­rate them and at the prices, it may be that Crys­tal Ocean makes sense as he’s around 5-2 rather than the 5-6 of his ri­val.

But CRACKS­MAN has a per­fect win­ning record on soft ground and that can make the dif­fer­ence. He is also try­ing to fol­low up last year’s vic­tory and there have been a lot of re­peat win­ners of the Cham­pion Stakes.

Cham­pi­ons Day re­ally does live up to its name with the Sprint at 2.00 an­other race wor­thy of any big Satur­day.

The main trends for this race are to stick with dis­tance win­ners — as the whole field are to­day — while out­siders beyond 121 have a poor record.

You must have won a Listed race, while horses aged three and four have the strong­est record.

A win last time out is a neg­a­tive and you want to look for horses that have won within the past 50 days.

Win­ning form at As­cot is not nec­es­sary, but some ex­pe­ri­ence of the track is im­por­tant. Most of these have been here be­fore thanks to the Royal meet­ing.

So look­ing at the lineup, it’s not that easy to find a horse aged three or four who is near the head of the bet­ting and ticks the other boxes.

One that does is HARRY AN­GEL. We need a lit­tle leap of faith be­cause this for­mer su­per­star has lost a lit­tle of his lus­tre with too poor ef­forts since win­ning at York in May.

He is a proven Group 1 horse who likes soft ground and has fin­ished sec­ond at Group 1 level at As­cot. On bal­ance, and look­ing at the prices, he is worth a small in­vest­ment.

The QEII Stakes at 3.15 looks a cracker and there are some good trends to guide our way.

Any horses aged older than five have a moun­tain to climb while eight of the past 10 win­ners have been north of 120 in the of­fi­cial rat­ings.

That has done what trends fans like to see and re­duced the big field to just two con­tenders — Roar­ing Lion and Reco­le­tos.

Both can boast a Group 1 win and a vic­tory over the mile dis­tance, al­though Roar­ing Lion has been beaten on his past three runs over this trip.

That, along with the fore­cast soft ground, tips the scales in favour of RECO­LE­TOS.

He did well to score in the high­est com­pany at Longchamp last time over this dis­tance. His best form has come with plenty of give in the ground and his poor run at the Royal meet­ing came in un­suit­ably quick con­di­tions.

Worth a small in­vest­ment: Harry An­gel

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