Air of op­ti­mism for in-form San Donato

The Racing Paper - - Trends And Diary - By John An­thony

MAGNA GRE­CIA looks hard to beat in the Fu­tu­rity Stakes (4.05 Don­caster).

Stick with horses that fin­ished ei­ther first or sec­ond last time out. That puts a big ques­tion mark over Cir­cus Max­imus, Kuwait Cur­rency and West­ern Aus­tralia who fin­ished too far down the places last time out.

It’s rare for a horse to come and win the old Rac­ing Post Tro­phy with plenty of miles on the clock, with two pre­vi­ous wins just about the max­i­mum.

For that rea­son, we will over­look the charms of Great Scott who has been in the win­ners’ en­clo­sure three times al­ready this sea­son.

Phoenix Of Spain, Dash­ing Wil­loughby, King Ot­takar and Raakib Al­hawa have been away from the track a lit­tle longer than you would like.

That leaves us with a short­list of Kick On, Magna Gre­cia and Tur­genev.

Given there has only been one win­ner sent off at a dou­ble-fig­ure price in the past 10 years, Kick On has a neg­a­tive to over­come. Try­ing to split the re­main­ing two on form isn’t par­tic­u­larly easy. But there is one ma­jor plus for Magna Gre­cia over Tur­genev.

That’s the strong record of trainer Aidan O’Brien in this race. Some of Bal­ly­doyle’s brightest stars have won this and he has no fewer than eight wins dat­ing back to 1997. That makes Donnacha O’Brien’s mount a con­fi­dent choice when it comes to the stats.

The Listed Don­caster Stakes kicks off the Town Moor ac­tion at 1.45.

This has been a race for horses that were placed last time out and ran within the past month or so.

We can cross out Can­ton Queen, Gar­rus, Heart­warm­ing, It’s the Only Way and Emer­ald Ap­proach.

That has chopped the field in half be­fore we re­move Bar­bill, Dave Dex­ter and Kodyanna who lack a win over this 6f dis­tance.

Af­ter ap­ply­ing those trends, we are left with a shootout be­tween San Donato and Breath Of Air, who have both been pop­u­lar in the early bet­ting.

There is very lit­tle to sep­a­rate them on the trends but the form of SAN DONATO looks slightly stronger and that can make the dif­fer­ence.

Older horses have a poor record in Don­caster’s Sun­rac­ Hand­i­cap at 3.25.

You need to stick with horses aged three, four or five which cuts a few of them out of to­day’s line-up.

Eight win­ners in the past decade were drawn in dou­ble fig­ures so it should pay to stick with that stat this time around.

That has cut the big field down to just nine hope­fuls — Tar­boosh, Ca­ma­cho Chief, Or­nate, Lord Rid­di­ford, Ever­gate, Just Glam­orous, Quick Look, Eris­simus Max­imus and Di­a­mond Dou­gal to con­cen­trate on.

All of them have the cru­cial win over 5f but Tar­boosh looks a lit­tle high in the weights to be win­ning this.

A de­cent run on Town Moor be­fore has been a good pointer so we can lose Lord Rid­di­ford, Ever­gate, Just Glam­orous, Eris­simus Max­imus and Di­a­mond Dou­gal.

So we now have a proper short­list of just Ca­ma­cho Chief, Or­nate and Quick Look.

Of those, CA­MA­CHO CHIEF is hav­ing very much the best sea­son and is fin­ish­ing it well with two wins and a sec­ond from his past three runs.

That run­ner-up ef­fort was prob­a­bly the pick at York last time and he looks on a fair enough mark still with a ca­pa­ble claimer on board.

This looks wide open but he should be on the premises again at a fair price.

Top form: San Donato

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