Tol­worth Hur­dle top trend is a fresh horse

The Racing Paper - - Trends And Diary - by John An­thony

THE Tol­worth Hur­dle (2.25 Sandown) is one of the first big races of 2019 with the key trend be­ing to stick with horses that were first or sec­ond last time out.

You also want a run­ner that has a re­cent out­ing un­der their belt and a win over the race dis­tance of 2m is some­thing else to look out for.

Look for run­ners that have won at least once over hur­dles but avoid horses that have been on the go, with a max­i­mum of two wins the bench­mark.

Con­cen­trat­ing on this year’s run­ners, there is a fairly lengthy short­list but two that stand out are Elixir De Nutz and Rath­hill.

The former has done very lit­tle wrong over tim­ber with a sec­ond in good com­pany at Chel­tenham in Oc­to­ber fol­lowed by wins in smaller fields at the same track.

He should be right there again but RATH­HILL was mas­sively im­pres­sive when win­ning a 20-run­ner race at New­bury last time out.

He barely had to be touched by Barry Ger­aghty and was on the bri­dle un­til the slight­est touch of the reins got the job done.

This is a step up in class from that but it was cer­tainly vis­ually im­pres­sive and there should be a lot more to come.

It’s a de­cent card at Sandown but the vet­er­ans’ chase at 3pm is no good for us as it’s only the fourth run­ning.

Sandown’s 3.35 looks com­pet­i­tive and horses aged be­tween five and seven have the best re­cent record.

Strangely, it’s much the best to have fin­ished out­side the first three last time out, while a run within the past 50 days has been im­por­tant.

An­other pointer is to have won be­tween one and three hur­dle races in the past. The bet­ting isn’t much help as they have won at all prices.

One with a fair shout ap­pears to be COURT ROYALE. He has the right num­ber of wins over tim­ber and was out of the frame last time out.

He likes this dis­tance and is the right age so should be right on the premises.

None of the Win­can­ton tele­vised races have had ten run­nings but the 3.15 comes clos­est with seven past re­newals. Horses aged be­tween seven and nine have the strong­est record, while car­ry­ing less than 11st 5lb has been an­other im­por­tant fac­tor.

Fin­ish­ing in the first three last time out has been a key trend, which re­ally nar­rows them down.

None of them fit the trends pre­cisely but THEIN­VAL ticks most of the boxes, with him car­ry­ing a lit­tle too much weight the only ma­jor worry.

He should find this a lit­tle eas­ier than the com­pany he’s been keep­ing at Chel­tenham and Win­can­ton this sea­son. Nicky Hen­der­son’s nine-year-old has looked more than a lit­tle rusty both times and should do him­self jus­tice to­day.


Not in­clud­ing yes­ter­day’s re­sults, MICK CHANNON has been hav­ing an ex­cel­lent run. In the past fort­night he has sent out six win­ners and a fur­ther place from nine run­ners.

JOHN GOS­DEN’S all­weather run­ners are in ex­cel­lent form too. He has had four win­ners and a fur­ther two places from his past nine run­ners.

Just over half of the NICKY HEN­DER­SON run­ners have hit the frame in the past two weeks – not bad go­ing from 49 run­ners to Thurs­day. His win record of 24% over that time is roughtly what you would ex­pect but back­ing all his run­ners have gen­er­ated a £34 profit to SP.

PHILIP KIRBY is run­ning at more than dou­ble his usual win rate lately with eight win­ners from 33 run­ners for a £33 profit.

VENE­TIA WIL­LIAMS is also hav­ing more win­ners than usual at an im­pres­sive 26% for a £13 profit.


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