Rail travel needs predictability
Playing fast and loose with timetables will only serve to drive passengers away from using trains.
“A fundamental strength of rail is that it is available on a ‘turn up and go’ basis”
RAILWAY timetables have long been seen as a predicable part of train travel, with widely advertised services available on station departure sheets and pocket timetables. In recent months, however, the Covid-19 pandemic has seen widespread alterations made to the timetable on an ad-hoc basis.
This followed a Government edict to cut operating costs to reflect lost revenue after travellers were told to avoid public transport and more people began working from home.
There appears to be a belief that there is no need to provide any publicity of the type that was once commonplace before previous timetable changes, with the thinking that digital information allows intending passengers to enquire about service times using the National Rail app, which is updated on a regular basis.
‘Turn up and go’ needed
But this emerging attitude calls into question a fundamental strength of the rail offer: that it is available on a ‘turn up and go’ basis, and that the timetables published in May and December will in fact be operating. If there is no longer any such certainty, this will have a devastating effect on journeys that are time-critical, as well as those where a last minute decision is made to use the train.
A reliable timetable also allows journeys to be planned where connections are necessary, but the approach to removing services during the validity of the timetable does not take this into account.
Alterations are being made without reference to local managers, who therefore cannot provide data on the pattern of journeys at individual stations.
In an environment where cost reduction is the objective, the choice of services operated ends up relating to resource productivity rather than actual passenger demand, so that the efficient use of traincrew and rolling stock become the basis of planning. The result can be the withdrawal of trains that were timed for journeys to and from schools, or the needs of retail sector employment.
Short notice changes also take no account of any reservations that are held, and often no action is being taken to tell passengers that their intended service is not running or which alternative service should be used instead.
Worse still, despite assurances about protecting the ‘access for all’ programme – which has been introduced to allow travel by individuals with reduced mobility – a passenger with booked assistance can arrive at the station to find the journey is no longer possible. There is a finite number of spaces available to convey wheelchairs, and if the service is not running it cannot be assumed that space will be available on the next available departure.
Staff at smaller stations have worked out what the best alternative is, and that can include providing a taxi if a connection is not honoured, but at larger stations dealing with significant numbers of assisted travel bookings can be more of a challenge.
It can be expected that short notice cancellations will decline as more permanent timetable cuts are agreed, which hopefully will coincide with the traditional change dates in December and May of each year.
Train Operating Companies are now having to gauge what the demand for services will be for the May 2022 timetable, and consultations have been taking place to gauge opinion. But proposals from both LNER and South Western Railway have been met with resistance to the point where the Department for Transport has intervened to postpone the LNER plan.
In summary, the state-owned operator wanted to speed up Anglo-Scottish services by reducing intermediate stops, which was in conflict with the levelling up agenda to stimulate economic growth in towns such as Darlington. What was proposed also reduced the number of TransPennine Express services operating between the North West and Scotland.
There seems to be a fixation with Anglo-Scottish services, when pre-Covid demand patterns show travel patterns for these journeys do not predominate.
An analysis of rail journeys in Scotland for 2019/20, published by the Office of Rail and Road, showed that 90.1% of travel was within the borders of the country, with 9.9% (or
9.8 million trips) crossing the border. Of these, the largest flow was to North West England, with 2.9 million journeys made. This was some way above the
2.5 million trips to London, with a combined North East and Yorkshire & Humber figure of
3.0 million.
Looking at similar data for Wales, any impression that travel to London is the dominant market can also be discounted. There is a lower element of journeys within the country at 68.5%, which at first sight is a surprise given the volume of traffic based on Cardiff serving the Valley Lines and other suburban routes.
External travel from Wales is recorded at 9.4 million journeys, with the highest demand for travel to the South West, including Bristol, at 3.0 million trips. Travel to London and the South East amounted to 2.7 million journeys, which was below the combined total to the North West and
West Midlands at 3.2 million journeys.
Few potential passengers appear to think about journeys between Wales and Scotland, where a derisory 41,000 journeys were made.
London not a priority
In the case of both Scotland and Wales, attitudes to the provision of rail services seem to place timetable planning for trains to destinations other than London as a secondary consideration, and it is an encouraging development that the Welsh Government has acquired Mk.4 rolling stock to enhance the quality of services between Wales and North West England. The deficiencies in the proposed May 2022 LNER timetable have exposed the London-centric attitudes that exist. The transfer of Caledonian Sleeper operations to ScotRail was a counter to the domination of services specified and marketed in England, which had previously been judged to be unsuccessful. If this experience is followed through, it might be better if a proportion of LNER Anglo-Scottish services were transferred to Scottish Government responsibility, and in particular those trains running beyond Edinburgh to Aberdeen and Inverness where the journey experience, particularly in terms of on board catering, can be poor.
The South Western Railway consultation is notable because a forecast has been made of the travel patterns that are anticipated to reflect longerterm demand. But individual passengers have been excluded from the process, which seems a step back from all the intentions announced by industry figures to put passengers first.
This procedural decision is unwise, because not all stakeholders that might qualify to comment have a knowledge base to do so, with many local authorities having no resources to make a meaningful input.
Need to dig deeper
A view has been put forward by managers that modern trains can measure the load factor in real time, meaning decisions can be based on actual usage. This is a questionable basis for planning because, while train operations might feel this provides sufficient knowledge to organise a timetable, it says nothing at all about the people who are not travelling and their reasons for not using rail, which might well be the time trains are running. Any demand forecast on which to base a timetable to operate from May 2022 must be regarded as a finger in the air, but brave souls at SWR have arrived at a conclusion as a result of passenger surveys and other data. The largest part of the preCovid business was the 53% of journeys being made by commuters, who on average used their season ticket for 4.3 days each week, offering a substantial discount over the purchase of daily tickets for travel at peak times. The expectation in May 2022 is that these passengers will on average travel for only 2.6 days each week, a figure that will make the purchase of a season ticket uneconomic. Business travel is assessed as having even weaker future demand, with the number of trips made by users falling from 56.5 to 36.5 annual journeys. The loss of these passengers, who pay higher prices for tickets (including the use of First Class accommodation), will reduce the average level of fares. The withdrawal of the Class 442 ‘Wessex Express’ EMUs can clearly be linked to the future expectation of lower demand for services using higher quality vehicles. Great play is being made of the new Derby-built Class 701 trains, which can carry more passengers using an updated metro layout. However, the use of rail for leisure based discretionary journeys is expected to increase on SWR services, reaching volumes that exceed pre-Covid demand.