Freight prospers while passenger numbers struggle to recover
The latest figures from the Office of Rail and Road show freight traffic is now above pre-Covid levels, but passenger traffic is still more than a third down overall.
THE trend away from fixed employment locations to flexible working at home and elsewhere, made possible by digital technology, was evident before any Covid-19 travel restrictions were put in place, but the pandemic has accelerated the pace of change and caused a growing reduction in the use of season tickets.
Figures are now available for rail travel during the three months up to the end of 2021, a period that was again impacted by advice to work from home if possible as the Omicron variant of the virus took hold.
A total of 285 million journeys were made in this time, which was more than double the 139 million recorded for the same period a year earlier at the height of the pandemic, but far below the 461 million trips of 2019 before Covid-19 struck.
Regional variations
The latest statistics put passenger volume overall at 62% prepandemic, but within this there is a wide divergence in the rate of recovery.
Longer-distance operators are showing the highest return of passengers, with 68.2% of previous journey levels being recorded. LNER had the best result at 83.6% of its prepandemic volume, with Hull Trains achieving 83.2%, and
East Midlands Railway 77.3%. At the other end of this league is CrossCountry, which recorded 58.5%.
The lowest level of current use was experienced in Scotland, where the return of 52.8% of passengers reflected higher levels of travel and economic restrictions than in England, where the weakest figures for passenger demand were Heathrow Express (44.6%), Chiltern Railways (55.0%), Govia Thameslink (55.2%), and Southeastern (55.2%).
Volume in London and the South East has been slower to recover, with an average of 60.5% for the operators concerned. Heathrow Express was again the worst performer, caused by the reduction in flights at the airport.
Average fare falling
The current average fare is calculated to be £5.98, which is 3% less than two years ago
– a surprise result given the increases imposed for controlled fares in January 2020 and
March 2021 of 2.8% and 2.6% respectively. With these fare increases factored in, an average ticket value of £6.50 might have been expected.
The overall impact on revenue brings an annual shortfall of close to £1 billion based on prepandemic user demand, a large part of which follows the decline in the sale of season tickets, which were only used by 17% of current passengers as working patterns have developed that do not require a daily commuting regime.
This is demonstrated by Freespace, a company that monitors trends in office attendance, which revealed that 42% of staff have returned to work in London on Thursdays, but only 25% on Mondays and 13% on Fridays. These figures are from October 2021.
Rolling stock and timetable cuts
Train operating companies controlled by the Department for Transport are actively reducing their timetables at peak periods to meet cost reduction targets. This has led to protests from groups representing passengers, as a number of service cutbacks are quite draconian.
Examples of reduced services are on Great Western’s Berks &
Hants route, South Western Railway from Waterloo to
Exeter, and through services between Euston and North
Wales. Northern has also thinned out services on a number of its routes.
There are also reductions in train formations, which has resulted in the early withdrawal of a number of vehicle types. It is surprising this has included the dual-voltage Class 365 ‘Networker Express’ units dating from 1995, which in third-rail form were originally allocated to Kent Coast services and the overhead AC sets allocated to the Great Northern route as far as King’s Lynn.
A fleet of 41 ‘365’ units were built, reduced to 40 after the Potters Bar crash in 2002 when No. 365526 was damaged beyond repair. They were the last to be built at the BREL
York Works and the fleet was concentrated on GN services in 2004. They have been replaced by newer rolling stock, with the transfer in of 110mph ‘Electrostar’ sets displaced from the Southern Railway, although fewer sets
“LNER had the best result at 83.6% of its pre-pandemic volume, with Hull Trains at 83.2%, and East Midlands Railway 77.3%”
are required as a result of both reduced peak services and smaller train formations.
The Carmont accident on August 12, 2020 has also brought into focus the fact that crashworthiness standards for HST sets are deficient when compared to current rolling stock standards (see special report on pages 10/11). These are of much earlier construction, being built between 1976 and 1980. The cab design of the Class 43 power car offers limited protection for traincrew, and the Mk.3 trailers involved in the crash were found to be suffering from corrosion, which reduced the ability to withstand a derailment of the type that occurred. Sadly, there were three fatalities that included the driver and train manager.
As a result of vehicle cascades, alternative rolling stock displaced from Avanti West
Coast and the East Midlands
Railway, made up of Class 221 ‘Super Voyagers’ and Class 222 ‘Meridians’, may provide an early opportunity to retire these Scotrail HST sets.
Post-Covid revival
In the final three months of 2021, rail freight operations amounted to 4.06 billion net tonne kilometres (ntkm), which was 2% above the level of activity two years ago. The market is dominated by intermodal services and the movement of construction materials, which together account for 69% of volume.
The haulage of coal – which was once the largest source of traffic – has fallen to 2.2% of overall volume and is confined to serving three power stations at Drax (for use in boilers that have not been converted to burn biomass), West Burton, and Ratcliffe-on-Soar. These installations are held in reserve for use when weather conditions deplete the output wind turbines.
It is likely that higher levels of activity would have been recorded had it not been for congestion at rail-served ports, which resulted in some shipping diversions to locations in mainland Europe.
The demand for construction materials is bringing new rail flows. Traffic volume has grown by 12.4% compared with the same quarter in 2019, in part because of HS2 construction work. With existing quarries at full capacity, previously dormant rail facilities are being re-opened to provide additional sites, with a new facility at Lowestoft starting operations to load seaborne aggregate.
In absolute terms, traffic volume was 1.20 billion ntkm in the latest quarter, which was the highest October-to-December figure since statistics were gathered in this way from April 1998.
The outlook for freight services is more positive than it has been for a long time, as rail has created a competitive advantage over road haulage as a result of higher fuel prices and an acute shortage of HGV drivers.
In contrast, as a result of Network Rail’s investment in the Strategic Freight Network, rail’s operating costs have been reduced by being able to run longer trains, and carry more high-capacity containers as a result of gauge clearance projects.
Freight innovation
Competition within the rail market is driving innovation, and there have been significant changes in the market share held by the freight operating companies. A total of 8.16 million train kilometres were worked during October, November and December last year and, while DB Cargo had the largest share at 33% (2.71 million train kilometres), it is a far cry from the dominant position that existed at the time of Privatisation, and its activity has fallen back by 5.7% over the last two years. Freightliner has also lost market position, although this has been offset by its heavy haul division, which means that an overall share of 31% is held (2.57 million train kilometres).
GB Railfreight has had phenomenal growth since it began in 1999, and recent activity increased by 16.2% over the comparable period in 2019 to achieving a figure of 2.0 million train kilometres, representing a market share of 25%.
A notable action by GBRf is the trial of the new hybrid
Class 18 shunting locomotives manufactured by Clayton Equipment and funded by Beacon Rail.
Fifteen have been ordered, with the first delivered to Whitemoor yard on February 1, where it will be tested to understand its capability and performance (see last issue).
Power is provided by an on-board battery that allows emission-free operation where charging facilities are available. There are also alternative power sources with a regenerative braking system and an engine that complies with current emission standards which can be utilised to increase locomotive running time.
Another rail haulage company established at the time of Privatisation was Direct Rail Services, which had a significant 28.6% increase in activity compared to two years ago.
It has focussed on providing distribution services for supermarket firm Tesco, which has progressively increased the use of rail services.