Country-by-country guide Analysis by our experts
JOE Schmidt’s Ireland team head into the Six Nations as bookies’ favourites just two months after that famous victory over the All Blacks in Chicago. However, Eddie Jones’ England are still unbeaten and victory over the Irish on the final weekend in Dublin would bring up the record 19 matches in a row undefeated.
Guy Noves’ new-look France will have a say in matters, kicking off at Twickenham next Saturday; Conor O’Shea’s Italy are on the up after beating the Boks while the Scots will want to give Vern Cotter a proper send off and show how far they’ve come before he leaves for Montpellier. With Warren Gatland once again on Lions duty, Rob Howley is charged with reinventing a Wales side no longer led by Sam Warburton. Lots to ponder, so we asked The
Rugby Paper’s brains trust – Jeremy Guscott, Nick Cain, Peter Jackson and Brendan Gallagher – for their considered opinions. Rugby Paper executive editor Matthew Emery was referee at Wood’s Bistro in Bath; editor in chief David Emery was there to pay the bill.
Nick Cain: First thing as ever is how the fixtures break and who has the split in terms of home fixtures versus away. What is interesting is that Ireland, France and Wales all have Italy away, which, given Italy’s record in the tournament, means they are basically on a gimme so it levels things up. Peter Jackson: I disagree.
Jeremy Guscott: Haven’t Italy won a couple in the last few years?
Brendan Gallagher: 12 out Italy’s 13 wins in the tournament have come at home. They do occasionally knock someone off in Rome.
NC: Do you think they are capable of beating one of those three this year?
BG: They have a decent shout against Wales first up. NC: I don’t think they have a chance. BG: They always tend to play better in the first few matches; they should have beaten France away first Saturday last year. They beat South Africa six weeks ago and will be roaring for this with all their players fit. If they are going to win a match, it’s Wales at home on the first weekend.
JG: Do you think Carlo Canna will start at 10? He’s so erratic.
BG: He’s gone backwards I must admit. He should have left Zebre and moved on to a decent team.
NC: Italy have had some famous victories but they are so few and far between. Looking at the form of Zebre and Treviso, who aren’t in the Champions Cup this season, you worry if they can contribute. Who would be more than a bench man in another side? I don’t see many starters with the exception of Sergio Parisse.
BG: Michael Campagnaro is a very good player.
PJ: About eight of them would get into the Springbok team!
BG: Look out for scrum-half Giorgio Bronzini. Their second best player is Edoardo Gori and Bronzini has gone straight in ahead of him so he must be some sort of player. I saw him against the Boks and he was very good.
NC: I think this will be an extremely close fought Six Nations with Lions
tour selection in mind, so I just don’t think they are going to get a look in. Apart from England, injury wise, most of the teams are looking pretty well full strength.
Matthew Emery: One of the big questions is can Wales develop their passing game?
PJ: They are in such confusion that right now I think they would take 3-0 in Rome. You can only go on the evidence of last November, and that suggests to me a team who will struggle to get out of the bottom half of the table. They certainly looked side a side who don’t know what they are doing. They tried to drop Jamie Roberts then brought him back and Rob Howley sticks the kid Keelan Giles on the bench, who is crying out to be played, but he doesn’t play him.
BG: Wales have previously lost all four in the autumn and done okay in the Six Nations. They did win three matches this autumn. In the past they’ve improved 50 per cent from rubbish autumns to good Six Nations. Could they not go from average autumn to very good Six Nations?
JG: Wasn’t it Wales’ most successful autumn ever?
NC: They are in a state of flux – especially regarding Roberts who has been a shoo-in not only for Wales but the Lions since 2009.
JG: Isn’t it amazing to think they are at a crossroads given the experience among that squad. The majority of the side have been together since before the 2011 World Cup. They won the Grand Slam in 2012 and the Championship in 2013.
PJ: But they’ve beaten the Southern Hemisphere twice in 36 games. They’ve finally realised they won’t win a World Cup playing one dimensional, truck it up the middle rugby with no offloading. So now it’s about ‘we are going to play differently’. They began to show that in the first Test in New Zealand last summer – since then precious little evidence of it. They are caught between two tactical stalls.
JG: You can only play with what you’ve got. You can’t turn them into something they are not. So if you pick Jamie Roberts you can’t expect to play free flowing passing game.
PJ: That’s my point. They tried to get by without him by picking Scott Williams.
JG: Williams isn’t a free flowing outside breaking passing type of player either.
PJ: I think he’s the most creative centre Wales have. Jonathan Davies is a Test Lion but his passing ability isn’t at that level.
JG: But you’re still trying to get Williams to do something he’s not at his best doing – he’s a very good player but I wouldn’t associate him with a chip through or a 20 yard pass you would expect from Henry Slade or Owen Farrell. With Scott Williams you are going to get pretty direct, maybe an outside break or step off one foot to cut back in but you’re not going to get a beautiful free-flowing, passing game. Wales need to use what they have. That’s the best thing Eddie Jones has done. He’s looked at what he’s got and got them playing such a simple game. Wales, at their best, playing a power game, are sometimes irresistible. The problem is when they face a side who stand up to them physically they can’t be off the cuff and find inspirational play because that’s not their game.
PJ: The last time they were irresistible was when they best England 30-3, in 2013.
ME: What about Sam Warburton? Will he be dropped? What does the selection of Thomas Young and Justin Tipuric suggest?
PJ: The starting XV will be determined by the fitness of Taulupe Faletau and I can’t see how you can play someone who hasn’t played any rugby since Christmas Eve even though they say he will be match fit. The back row for Rome should be that which played the entire match against Argentina – Ross Moriarty at No.8, big ball-carrying presence, Tipuric at 7, and Warburton at 6. Warburton was at 6 and Tipuric 7 when they had that famous win over England. Olly Cracknell and Thomas Young are the uncapped players and then James King, who covers 6 and 8 would be on the bench ahead of Faletau if they rule
him out. I don’t see Young being in the 23 to start with.
ME: And if Faletau is fit? PJ: They’d stick him on the bench. Ease him back for England and then Moriarty shifts to 6 unless Sam brings his A game. He’d admit he’s struggled a bit. It’s odd that Howley should say Sam’s the captain for autumn and Six Nations but after Warburton returns from a cheekbone injury, Gethin Jenkins is captain and when he goes off, he hands the arm band to Alun Wyn Jones and Sam is third choice.
NC: It goes back to Wales being in flux. Warburton’s place was sacrosanct and now it’s not; same with Roberts.
JG: It’s to do with form. Other players are now competing. Sam was injured then superseded by a player in form; Roberts now has some competition and is no longer in South Wales.
NC: Warburton just doesn’t play enough. And hasn’t done since the 2013 Lions tour.
ME: How will Ireland go on from that famous five-try win over the All Blacks?
PJ: Ireland have to go to Murrayfield first. Scotland are much improved and will be harder to beat at home than for many years. It’s a tricky game for Ireland even if the last time they went there they scored 40 points and won the title. They have Wales in Cardiff which is home from home for them. If they stear clear of injury – especially to Conor Murray and Jonny Sexton, unquestionably the best half-back pairing in the Championship – then they are in good shape. The people who pick the fixtures must be fortune tellers because right now if you want a grand finale it’s Ireland-England. That should be a double Grand Slam game and I think Ireland will beat England in Dublin. ME: Why? PJ: England will have to pay some sort of price for their injuries going forward and it will be potentially their 18th match looking for the record 19 unbeaten.
NC: Ireland have lived a charmed life going into this tournament. They virtually have nobody unfit, so by the time of that game they might have a few casualties of their own.
BG: Ireland had a hangover from the World Cup and carried that into last year’s Six Nations – a delayed reaction to Brian O’Driscoll disappearing from the scene and Paul O’Connell retiring. They didn’t fill the vacuum. Joe Schmidt may have a had a good look at himself. There were rumours he was off but he re-committed, I get the feeling the team re-committed. I thought their Chicago display was a pretty exceptional performance. If England had done that we would have been all over it. NC: True BG: People talk about the depth England have, well Ireland have similar depth now. If they get off to a win against Scotland, I think they will be involved in a Championship decider. NC: And they have to beat France away. BG: I fancy them against France. Murray is playing out of skin, Rob Kearney looks back to his best, Robbie Henshaw is a beast – I think he’s a Lion. But the one who catches the eye time and again is Tadhg Furlong. He has the scrummaging power and the athleticism you look for from a prop in 2017.
NC: His progress is absolutely phenomenal.
JG: He’s a massive man and to have his scrummaging ability and then what he does away from the scrum and line-out with the ball – he has an x-factor. You’re picked at that level because you can do the job that the number on your jersey says you can. What catches the eye is what you do they don’t expect you to do. To have the fitness to do all the set-piece stuff and still be able to offload and send a 10m pass into the bread basket you are a special player. And he is a mountain of a man.
NC: He did a real job on the All Blacks in the scrum and in the loose. And you’re right about Ireland’s depth.They have an interesting back row with Jamie Heaslip and CJ Stander who are similar ball-carrying players, with Josh van der Flier complimenting them.
BG: And they hardly miss Sean O’Brien, wonderful player that he is.
JG: Ball carriers are the new x-factor players because they allow you to get quick, fast ball.
NC: And then you need a scavenging 7 like van der Flier to link it. He’s a classic 7, always there on a shoulder.
ME: What do you make of Henshaw, Jerry?
JG: Just the sheer size of the man means he doesn’t shy from impact, you tell him to run in hard, don’t step left or right, and he’ll do it. Still relatively inexperienced but having big impacts – he was one of the stars in Chicago which is very impressive given he has so few caps. He is the modern day professional inside centre at 6ft 3in, 16st 7lbs with great aerial ability to give another dimension too, with knee leading and elbow going up for the ball. Now I want to see him tackle as hard as he runs in to contract with the ball.
ME: Where do we stand on Sexton v Owen Farrell in terms of the Lions, say?
BG: When fully fit, Sexton is a hell of a player but you’re always thinking he will go off after 55 mins. Farrell has that air of indestructibility. Paddy Jackson isn’t a million miles behind Sexton so if he does go off it’s not a disaster. Jackson is a seriously good player now and has kicked on in the last 12 months.
NC: Seriously good player, I agree with that. Does he eclipse George Ford? Ford, in terms of playing on the gain line and getting a backline moving, is probably the best there is in Europe at the moment.
JG: The best rugby played this autumn by a stretch was Ireland’s. The intensity was at another level compared to England. Schmidt getting his mojo back has inspired this side. I’ve not seen rugby like that in a long time. That All Black defeat was in the top five games I’ve seen in my whole life. If Ireland get within 90 per cent of those performances they will comfortably win the Six Nations.
NC: Six Nations is a different beast and they have to do it all again. But they come in as favourites. And in the past when they have that favourites tag something has gone wrong.
JG: They were champions in 2014 and 2015.
BG: I’d like to see them embrace the favourites’ tag.
JG: I want teams to believe they should win every game, especially at home. Ireland should believe they are good enough to do the Slam. Scotland should have a similar mindset. They have made enormous progress in the last couple of years and should be going out believing they will win on that first weekend.
ME: Eddie Jones has a few injuries to his pack but says he will attack.
NC: The thing about Jones so far is he’s had the magic touch of fixing a team that looks as though they’re broke in terms of injuries. In the last year he’s done it more than once. He’s got a big problem on the loosehead without Mako Vunipola or Joe Marler so it’s between Matt Mullan and Ellis Genge the angry man. I’d play Genge – along with Dylan Hartley and Dan Cole, with Goerge Kruis and Courtney Lawes at lock and a new back row of Maro Itoje, Tom Wood and Nathan Hughes – that’s five of the pack that played in the Grand Slam and Australia whitewash. So they are not quite so denuded up front and the backs are intact. For me the real issue is if they pick up any more injuries they are beginning to look thin. Going to Wales is always fraught.
JG: Only recently. In the 90s it wasn’t daunting, nor in the early noughties. It’s just a sign of the teams and on paper in recent years Wales have had more experienced sides. Like Jacko said, Rob Howley is now trying to change Wales but England started this under Stuart Lancaster and Eddie Jones has continued that starting with a base of good setpiece and defence and then trying to add x-factor in attack. A worry is George Ford is not as effective as he was two seasons ago.
BG: One of the big shouts is Nathan Hughes at No.8 with only one start in Test rugby. He went well against Australia but there will be a lot of weight on his shoulders. NC: You’re right it’s a concern, but Wasps have got him playing a tighter game with fewer 50 per cent offloads. JG: Maybe people have also worked out what he’s capable of doing now. NC: England will still be a very difficult side to beat. The French pose a real danger to England because while there are not many teams that will muscle them, France have the capability of doing so. JG: You have to be mad as a side in this Six Nations if you lose by being dominated by France because they are not fit enough. A standard Test team should bank on line-out and scrum ball and then dictate where you play because you can kick it 60 metres. You are dumb if you lose to France playing France’s way.
NC: For me, France have definitely got fitter. They ran New Zealand close and you can see it from their club sides in Europe. People like Sebastien Va’ahamina are not slow men. They are not as quick as England who will look to move them around and offset the power. But if the French start that percussive game in and around the England 22 it will be very difficult.
BG: They need to pick Camille Lopez at 10. I see Guy Noves always likes JeanMarc Doussain who is a 9/10.
NC: If he’s been watching Doussain for Toulouse recently he should not be picking him. Lopez should start.
PJ: Why have France not had an outstanding fly-half since Thomas Catstaignede? BG: Scrum-half is their man. JG: The downfall of France is that they
never have both half-backs who are top class and playing well together. That’s a defining point of any team.
NC: Lopez has still got the flaky question mark next to him.
JG: You only have to look in his eyes and you can see he’s fragile.
NC: Away from the hub at 9 and 10, if you look at France they’ve got something now. JG: I haven’t seen it. NC: That guy Baptiste Serin who came on against the All Blacks looks good. BG: Absolute star. ME: Is Wesley Fofana a big loss? NC: They have Gael Fickou and Remi Lamarat and have recalled big Bastareau, who was excellent last Saturday for Toulon against Saracens
PJ: The tournament needs a strong France. Over the last five years they have been diabolical.
JG: That’s the difference. We used to say which France will turn up. Now we never expect to see the amazing, freeflowing attacking France. PJ: Hopefully this year. ME: Do England get a flier against them? JG: At home, yes. The scary factor for sides against England is they are playing not to the best because of injuries and they are winning.
NC: Given the relative performances of Wales and England against Australia in the autumn, England should go to Cardiff with absolutely no fear.
JG: On paper England are favourites, but without the Vunipola brothers you look at the list of names and say why? Stick them in that pack and it’s a whole different look.
NC: Likewise in that game against Australia, Alun-Wyn Jones was missing for Wales. How important is this guy?
PJ: He’s crucial. He’s been outstanding and the most consistent performer in that team for the last five years. But while AWJ consistency is in class of his own for Wales one player I want to see more of is George North. Injury problems have clearly affected him – five concussions in two years – but if I look at North and didn’t know who he was you’d think he looked ordinary.
JG: Few would argue with that but at 24, he’s been flogged and played a lot of rugby for that age. Everybody has periods where they don’t play very well – I did. Not many 24-year-olds have done what he’s done. And think how much ball actually gets put to the wing for Wales.
NC: Wales really suffered without AWJ whereas England’s patch up job has worked okay without Billy Vunipola. We haven’t seen them without both brothers yet – but the evidence so far would suggest they will cope. ME: Who are England’s starting wings? NC: Jonny May and Jack Nowell. PJ: Nowell’s a good player, although obviously Gatland wouldn’t pick him because he’s under 6ft 8in!
JG: Nowell is great and will be even better when he learns to pass more. He’s a winger so doesn’t want to let the ball go and has had some brilliant individual games but he needs to add a passing game.
NC: Matt, you picked England last year do you think they’re on for a second Grand Slam?
ME: Yes I think it will come down to the final weekend. I can see England winning all four and then setting up a showdown in Dublin. It will be an arm wrestle but if we don’t pick up any more injuries and the cavalry returns, I can see England winning.
JG: You’re talking about England winning their home games, going to Cardiff and winning and then finishing it in Dublin...
BG: ...that would be 19 on the trot and the world record...
JG: Both are games they could lose. If NZ went to Wales it would guarantee a win. England aren’t in that bracket yet.
PJ: It is still the game for Wales to win but increasingly the people see the bigger picture that beating England is no longer the be-all and end-all. We’re brought up on Six Nations shocks and I would not rule out Wales losing to Italy and then beating England six days later. JG: Wales cannot lose in Rome. NC: There’s a new film out called LaLa Land, Jacko!
ME: Looking at England’s options in the back three, do you see Anthony Watson being given a run at 15 at any point in the Six Nations?
NC: Mike Brown won’t be budged easily. Alex Goode was playing out of his skin last season and Eddie didn’t see fit to move Brown and I don’t think he will move Brown now. And Watson hasn’t returned in great form.
JG: The full-back has to be great under the high ball in defence and winning a high ball challenge in attack. Dan Biggar for Wales and Rob Kearney for Ireland you’d put in that bracket. Until someone else dominates the air like Brown he is England’s full-back.
BG: Eddie Jones said he had two twoyear plans. There could be quite radical changes to the England team next year. But this first two years he’s just going to pick a team to win a match.
ME: Will England’s best team include Itoje at six?
BG: Yes. I was arguing last year that he should be a six. He’s the Lebron James of rugby, he is a great athlete. He’ll end up in the second row without a doubt but let’s have a couple of years in the back row and enjoy it.
JG: He’s such a quality player mentally and physically – the package – I think he could be a very good six. He’s not the quickest six you’ll see nor the most robust in open field, but what he does so well is come under the radar and disrupt and jackal over the ball. This season he’ll be targeted and I’m interested to see if he steps up.
NC: He will – his consistency is phenomenal and his intelligence marks him out. ME: Who is the six if not him? BG: If James Haskell is fit, Tom Wood.
NC: They might still do this with Itoje at lock. Alternative is Teimana Harrison.
ME: When does Itoje become captain?
NC: If he goes on tour in the summer and come backs a Test Lion his stock would have risen and he could take that next step. A year is a long time in rugby.
ME: So I say England can do a second Grand Slam, what do you think Jerry?
JG: They will win all their home games. If Ireland produce their best form from the autumn and England play their best under Eddie Jones, it will be one massive game. Think of England’s defence against Australia in the summer and Ireland’s attack, those five tries against New Zealand; Ireland would win in Dublin.
BG: England are not a 19-match unbeaten world record team. They will lose a match. It might be Scotland at home.
BG: There’ll be no Grand Slam this year JG: Ooh, there could be. ME: Jerry, you touched on the Scottish mindset earlier – how do you see them going this time?
JG: It intrigues me when such a big fuss is made about one player being out, in Scotland’s case prop JP Nel, as if they are saying ‘without him we are really going to struggle’.
NC: I think the Nel injury could be a classic case of subterfuge because this lad playing for Glasgow, Zander Fagerson, is a tremedous player. I’ve seen him in these Glasgow wins and particularly against Leicester, chewed them up. So I don’t think they’ll miss Nel too much
ME: Glagow are on a roll. What’s the view of Finn Russell? PJ: He is exciting, takes chances. JG: There are only two ways a fly-half will scare you: he can kick at goal from anywhere or he runs with the ball. Any 10 with great running skills will scare a defence and Russell is learning that part of the game. He was standing flat as pivot to pass but now he is reading it better when to run. If he does more of that he can have a great Six Nations.
BG: And he’s backed up by some quality outside now: Dunbar, Bennett, Scott, Visser, Maitland, Hogg, Sempour.
ME: How will bonus points potentially affect that final weekend?
PJ: Try bonuses over the last decade would have been few and far between. They say it will keep players going until the end but you’re playing for your country, surely that’s enough?
NC: People have tended to have a very conservative mindset – hold on to what we have rather than shoot for more. Only on Super Saturday did we get an explosion. So I’d rather there be encouragement to go and play attacking rugby. There have been some great 3-0 wins but few and far between. The great games are generally when both sides are willing to take a risk.
JG: What’s the difference really between needing a bonus point on the last day and needing a certain points difference. Eagerness to score is the same. ME: And finally give me a player to light up the tournament? PJ: Stuart Hogg JG: Garry Ringrose BG: I went him last year and he didn’t play! CJ Stander. I hate project players but he is a wonderful player who has helped transform Ireland.
NC: Jack Nowell
VERDICT
BG: Ireland this year. strength in depth, good draw. England second – and decided by a bonus point! PJ: Ireland. Only because they have the last game at home and for what they did in Chicago. England second. NC: Ireland to win it, but it won’t be a Grand Slam. Ireland may lose to Wales and beat England. England second. JG: England to win. With three home games. Even if they don’t win both against Wales and Ireland they’ll win because Ireland will lose a game. ME: England... with a possible Grand Slam!