Green for go Ireland, but Eddie has depth
England are on a mission to win an unprecedented third straight Six Nations title and are the bookies’ favourites with Ireland a close second. It’s far from a two-horse race this year, though, as Scotland will have a big say in proceedings after dismantling Australia in the autumn.
An evolving Wales lie in wait for Scotland in Cardiff looking to better last season’s fifth-place finish, while it’s Conor O’Shea second season in charge of Italy and the Azzurri badly need a win after their Wooden Spoon last year. The French have a new coach – again – and Jaques Brunel will need to work his magic to turn around French fortunes.
Lots to ponder as always, so we asked The Rugby Paper’s brains trust of Nick Cain, Jeremy Guscott, Peter Jackson and Brendan Gallagher for their expert analysis. Editor Matthew Emery was referee at Wood’s Bistro in Bath.
Matthew Emery: So England go in search of a third title on the spin, will they do it?
Nick Cain: No. Ireland will win it this year. If you look at the split of matches they have three home games in a row in the middle which is a big advantage after starting against France, who are in a mess. Ireland’s last game against England at Twickenham could well decide the Championship, but I see England losing one before that.
ME: If not Ireland, who do you see beating England?
NC: England have injury worries and problems with form, but Eddie Jones’ great trick is getting players to perform for England who haven’t performed for their clubs. England’s big danger match is Scotland away and also they have a trip to France – if the French have managed to get something together by then. France v England is always hard-fought. And the Wales game will be more difficult than many people anticipate. England have only two home games. They will be in the running in this Six Nations but I see them dropping a game, possibly two.
Peter Jackson: Wooden spoon! Brendan Gallagher: England will have a bit of a roller coaster Six Nations. I think they’ve reached a plateau and I can see them dipping a bit in 2018 with one if not two defeats. Ireland are the team to beat. Apart from Scarlets, the side playing the best club rugby at the moment is Leinster and I’d love to see Ireland slip the leash and play like Leinster do.
Jeremy Guscott: What’s the likelihood of that? Zero.
BG: Joe Schmidt won’t allow it and you’ve got the Munster hard core of CJ Stander, Peter O’Mahoney and Conor Murray. They kind of run that team so I think they will be pretty pragmatic and not play the kind of rugby we dream of them playing – but I think it’s their Championship this year.
Peter Jackson: Ireland on points difference from England, Scotland third. I say that expecting Ireland to lose at Twickenham. Where will the banana skin be? I think the most likely place for that is England at Murrayfield, despite Scotland having a huge problem at tighthead. Maybe by that third round game Simon Berghan will be back and there will be less of a problem at No.3 than in the first two games. Leigh Halfpenny says that Wales are title contenders – I’d be surprised if that happens – so Wales fourth then France and Italy sixth.
JG: There are so many factors that make a neutral lean towards Ireland. The European Cup is going their way and they’ve held back their Lions stars so they are conditioned to play the whole season. My head tells me Ireland should win the Six Nations but I believe that because of English strength in the front five they will win it. England tight five is far and away superior to the rest.
ME: I’ll stick with England again. I think it will come down to the last weekend and at Twickenham England should have enough to beat Ireland.
JG: As a 23 England are generally much stronger. Last year was their decline because if you look at the tournament it just got worse and worse. They trickled through it and finally tripped themselves up. They scraped past Wales and France, were dumfounded by Italy, Wales didn’t turn up and then they got done by Ireland. But then to counter that they go away with their third team almost and play some unbelievable rugby and beat Argentina. Okay the Pumas are a declining side but it was wonderful to watch. In the autumn you knew they would win two comfortably and then it was about how good Australia would be. The beauty with England is that no matter how may injuries they have in their back row, their front five is phenomenal and formidable and that will keep them in touch with any side in international rugby, particularly the Six Nations.
ME: What about the back line – who would you pick if everyone was fit?
JG: You need a 9 who can box kick consistently and Ben Youngs is getting there; you couldn’t get a better mental head than Owen Farrell. The only thing now is the attack and England’s biggest problem is scoring tries. They need to be really scary from first and second phase and they need some superstars. With Owen you know he’s a ten and not an inside-centre and I’m not convinced about two distributors. You play your best inside-centre but at the moment there’s no one putting their hand up. I would go with Ben Te’o at 12 and experiment with Jonathan Joseph and Elliot Daly at 13.
NC: George Ford needs to raise his game to way above where it’s been. He’s not shown it for Leicester or England this season. I expected fireworks at Tigers, it’s been a damp squib. Eddie has a decision to make with all sorts of positions, especially at 10 because Farrell is not a 12. I’m not convinced of the might of the tight five and then there’s the issue over Jamie George being the better all-round hooker but Dylan Hartley being there for set-piece and leadership. Top sides have hookers who offer more around the field than Hartley. Mako Vunipola looks tired and Dan Cole, although solid, gives away a huge number of penalties and is not cast-iron consistent
ME: So to the Danny Cipriani debate, would you have him in the squad?
BG: Well if Owen Farrell is going to be playing 12, Cipriani is the form 10. Since touring Argentina last year, George Ford has been pretty average for Leicester and didn’t set the world alight in the autumn. With Farrell at 12, Cipriani would almost be my first choice 10. But Eddie won’t pick him.
NC: The axis of Ford and Farrell at 10 and 12 worries me. Against sides that are good but not great they can work the oracle and create opportunities. But against the best sides I don’t think there is enough penetration. They can get stymied – as they did in Dublin last year. Ford is a great distributor of the ball but that is all he does now. He is very quick over the first 10-15 metres but you never see him challenge the line. He never does so for Leicester and I see Jones using him primarily as a distributor. I think to win Championships and and World Cups you need threats in every position in that backline.
JG: It’s well known that England don’t have that. No one with half a brain would argue with what Cainy’s just said. Ford is there for his tactical nous and tactical kicking which he’s better at
than Owen. They are both pivots to release the firepower but what are they releasing with Mike Brown at the back? Anthony Watson or Jack Nowell would be more dangerous. But with Brown, who struggles to release the ball, it’s still a work in progress although he did improve that area in the autumn.
PJ: Including the Argentina tour in the summer and the Autumn Internationals England picked 38 players – there was only one constant throughout those five teams and that was Ford at stand-off. No other 10 got a look in, not even five minutes off the bench. So If I’m Cipriani that’s telling me this guy is not going to pick me.
JG: As Eddie said, if Ford and Farrell get injured I might look at him.
PJ: Marcus Smith will very soon be ahead of him.
BG: I want Eddie to drop all this apprentice nonsense. Smith would be a tremendous player to have on the bench as an impact player. And I think Zach Mercer has to come into the back row equation given the injuries.
ME: How will the back row reshuffle work without Billy Vunipola and Nathan Hughes ... could you see Chris Robshaw wearing seven? NC: I can’t. BG: Who’d you have instead? NC: Sam Underhill. Also Mark Wilson and Don Armand need a mention at blindside – it should be their time. BG: The last two aren’t in the squad. PJ: I admire Robshaw enormously. He has come back from the type of setbacks that would have demolished a lesser person. The World Cup embarrassment, losing the title in Cardiff in 2013 when odds on to do a Slam and missing out on the Lions twice. I’m not saying they were wrong to leave him out but he’s come back from all that.
NC: Admirable bloke no question and has real, determination. But he is a Test blindside not openside.
BG: I’m not a huge fan of Underhill. I think Sam Simmonds will probably be the seven but who do you play at No.8?
NC: There’s a ready-made solution at Exeter: pick Don Armand and Simmonds. They play together most weekends and for me you bring Armand in at No.6 – he’s a rangy bloke, great lineout option and pacey, with Simmonds at No.8, who might not be as big as others but he’s dynamic, and the nuggety Underhill at No.7 because he’s so destructive.
BG: Robshaw was one of England’s players of the autumn and I think he’ll be at six.
JG: Rob Baxter was asked if Armand was the unluckiest bloke not to be in the England squad and he said Eddie had told him he needs to run more explosively. Get off the floor and run your weight and power which I thought was a good point.
PJ: What about Teimana Harrison? BG: He’s playing well. NC: But definitely not a No.8.
BG: No. But Eddie saw something in him originally.
NC: Same with Will Evans at Leicester. Called up to the first training squad and not seen again – now we’ve got Gary Graham. We’re seeing how crucial Billy Vunipola is for England going forward to the World Cup. JG: My challenge with England is to score more tries and having both Billy Vunipola and Hughes out could be the catalyst for that because they won’t be able to rely on a big guy standing still and making five or six yards so you may have to play a bit quicker. BG: A lot of it goes through Billy and if he’s not playing you need quicker tempo from the half-back and I’m not sure Youngs is a shoo-in ahead of Danny Care. Care is playing better than Youngs although Youngs has a lot of credit in the bank. England need to play quicker and wider. JG: And all the players would love that. NC: My biggest concern about Eddie Jones was a criticism made when he was Australia coach: when he’s made decisions on players it’s very difficult to shift that view point. In the year and a half going into a World Cup I’m not sure the chemistry of this England side is a World Cup-winning side. It’s a bloody good side. But is it a World Cup winning side? He has to be open to bringing new people in. JG: He hasn’t done a bad job – lost one game. If they bomb out and don’t finish first or second then what Nick says has some credit in it. Otherwise it doesn’t. The meat for England is when they play South Africa, Australia and New Zealand next season. NC: My opinion is he needs to be a bit more open in selection policy. JG: Results say he doesn’t. NC: Results say he needs to be flexible. The biggest game last year, backing up a Grand Slam, they didn’t win it. JG: Not many teams do. PJ: From the outside looking in, it seems Jones if further away to knowing his World Cup side than he was a year ago. He’s brought loads of players in. It seems like he’s almost got too wide a choice. ME: Dan Biggar has been ruled out for the first three games, Rhys Webb for the entire tournament to compound Welsh injury woe – how do you see them faring? PJ: I believe they started to change from the way they have been playing but left it too late to make that change and are playing catch up. Biggar’s injury will mean Wales avoid dropping the undroppable – Leigh Halfpenny, with Patchell or Anscombe starting at 10. Liam Williams’ injury should see Steffan Evans on one wing and, if they go for broke, Josh Adams is a contender on the other. George North is still to prove his fitness and it’s a long time since he played for wales the way he did for the Lions in 2013. They’ve finally got round to recognising that Jamie Roberts doesn’t fit the bill for the way they aspire to play. They will miss Jonathan Davies hugely but Hadleigh Parkes has been a find from that Welsh colony of Manawatu. Halfpenny’s still Mr Reliable with the boot although he did miss four on the trot against Bath, but there is a feeling that he is not as fast after his knee reconstruction. If they are serious about playing the game with pace and width then I think they need to include Patchell, either at 10 or full-back. JG: Biggar is picked for mental strength and he’ll be a big loss. And if you look at some of the great tries they scored in the autumn he was integral, playing the Ford pivot role and throwing out great passes.
PJ: Steff Evans is exciting but defensively suspect. I wanted to see Wales become decisive over Rhys Webb and the injury has done it for them. Ireland have said to Simon Zebo, ‘if you’re going to France you’re out of the equation’. I know the Irish are selective – everybody’s out the equation unless your Johnny Sexton and then you can go and play on the Moon and we’ll still pick you – but the time has now come for Wales to look at the bigger picture with the World Cup in mind and pick Gareth Davies.
JG: I don’t think it makes much difference which scrum-half they use for the dynamic of the team but with that back row you have to play a more expansive game.
BG: I find Wales almost as frustrating as France. When you look at their team sheet it’s laden with talent with a back line to die for. And their second choice back row is as a good as a lot of other Test sides. They might be a bit light in the front row but that team should have been causing some serious damage in the last three or four years and it frustrates me they don’t do it, and in style, with their passing ability.
NC: Warren Gatland’s proved himself to be an exceptional coach and he’ll see what Wayne Pivac has done at Scarlets and glean something from it. The big units that have caused such a sensation in the backline have started to change and he recognises it. His pack doesn’t have the depth of other countries and I think they are light in the second row. But they have three or four of the best 7s in the tournament.
PJ: It’s a shame for the lad but Justin Tipuric will probably be on the bench again. He’s seen as a player who thrives when it’s loose. He’s not a Sam Warburton who wins regularly ball, he’s like a three quarter who plays openside. Would he be a regular for England? NC: He’d be a shoo-in.
ME: Has Gatland stifled Wales or played with what they’ve got?
NC: I think he’s been a pragmatist, seen what raw material he had and adapted his game to it. He took umbrage at ‘Warrenball’ – that he was a one dimensional coach. He certainly wasn’t one dimensional at Wasps and he fashioned a European Cup winning aide.
PJ: How come Wales have won nothing since 2013 – with Howley in charge and Gatland on sabbatical with the Lions. That was their last great performance.
NC: Primarily their problem has been little depth up front. They’ve had the backs but not the forwards. Injuries to front line pack players have meant they struggle. Same would happen this year if Alun Wun Jones got injured.
PJ: I think you’re giving the backs too much credit. How do you explain that season after season Wales were the most predictable team to defend against.
JG: It’s about players being fit. Hallam Amos looked exciting in the autumn, Hadleigh Parkes has put himself in position to start – they both want to play attacking rugby but with Dan Biggar they’ve not got anywhere near to it.
ME: What about Italy, can we expect anything more from them this year?
BG: They have been disappointing but this season they are the only side that have two six-day turnarounds and three away games on the bounce in the middle of the tournament.
NC: And on the flip side, Ireland have
three home games in a row in the middle.
BG: They need to organise the tournament better, there has to be parity. If you’re playing three games on the trot away, at least don’t give them a six-day turnaround.
NC: Logistics do need addressing. But with Italy what’s the answer?
BG: If they played at European Nations level they would probably win 30-0, apart from against Georgia – but they just can’t seem to develop. ME: Can O’Shea change them? NC: Benetton are not winning every game in the PRO14 but they are becoming a much more difficult team to negotiate, especially at home. The introduction of these overseas coaches who have come in with a reputation like Kieran Crowley have made a difference and that means Italy will be more than a speed bump.
ME: And Wayne Smith coming in to help guide the coaches later in the year should be beneficial.
NC: The more brains they can get the better. England have been trying to get Smith for a long time.
ME: The No.10 aspect has been the problem since Diego Dominguez. Is Ian McKinley good enough?
BG: I’ve been quite impressed with him. They ought to give him a go because Carlo Canna has gone backwards. But the best little footballer is Eduardo Gori, but he can’t get a start because Tito Tebaldi is back. I’d consider doing something mad and play him at 10.
ME: What about the Scots this year after that big win over the Wallabies?
BG: Should have a very good season, although Glasgow didn’t do as well in Europe as expected.
NC: It’s how the modern season comes in waves, and teams resting players ahead of the Six Nations. That Glasgow contingent – the whole of the Scots backline is pretty well Glasgow with the forwards a mix of them and Edinburgh – so it’s a bit like a club side and on the evidence of autumn they’ll cause teams serious problems. But Zander Fagerson is not there and tight head is their main problem.
JG: There’s a way you play around that but it involves so much on not making mistakes – but that is the Gregor Townsend way as he showed with Glasgow.
BG: They’ve got to keep Ali Price at nine despite Greig Laidlaw coming back in. Price absolutely sets the tempo for that back division.
JG: But he’s got to be a bit more selfless.
BG: He can overdo it sometimes on the break.
PJ: I’ve think Scotland have been thrilling – the best thing to happen to international rugby this year but you could also argue that it’s going to be more difficult for them in the Six Nations than it was in the autumn only because the British teams know them better. So they’ll be more aware and exploit their weakness easier. They should have beaten the All Blacks – that was the cover tackle of the season from Beauden Barrett on Stuart Hogg.
JG: Mentally it’s crucial they beat Wales. If they lose to Wales they’ve then got their two perceivably toughest sides to follow. If they don’t beat Wales, mentally they could be shot. If that Scotland backline is released against Wales with the same attitude as against New Zealand and Australia they will win. No doubt.
PJ: Wales will have to try and beat Scotland at their own game. I can’t see them thinking ‘Oh let’s keep this one tight around the fringes’.
JG: The side that generally makes the most errors and gives away the most penalties is the side that is under most extreme pressure. If Scotland drop ten balls that’s ten scrums they don’t want, which could lead to penalties and being nine points down before you know it. So their execution will have to perfect. But then conditions should be perfect. They are going down there knowing they haven’t won for I don’t know how long and trying to change that. If Scotland played the sort of rugby from the autumn and won the Championship no one would be disappointed. But they have to develop and be able to play a different way and win a kicking battle if need be.
PJ: It would be a wonderful thing and I think they will have a huge say in who wins it. They could knock out England at the start, wouldn’t surprise me if they beat France and England and run Ireland very close in Dublin.
JG: They have an amazing opportunity but only if they beat Wales. And they should because of recent international form. The back line is hot. If Scotland win the Championship playing the way they do I think all neutral rugby fans will be happy.
ME: And what can we expect from Ireland?
JG: Ireland are very programmed in the Joe Schmidt way and don’t give away penalties – they’re horrified if they give five away in a game. They are very well drilled but if they are asked to do more, they can’t. You can cover only so many bases. You can’t coach instinct or the exact situation you’re going to find yourself in. Especially when you’re chasing the game. Their game plan needs them to lead and dictate which they usually do. And the threat of Sexton getting an injury is quite high. When you think Irish rugby, you think how programmed it is and how it can come unstuck. Schmidt will have a plan for every game but if there is a glitch – like wind, rain, loss of form – it can go wrong and I don’t know where the fix of the glitch is. It’s low risk rugby – and they’ve only lost a few games, but each time they didn’t know how to change it.
NC: Like players, coaches evolve and Schmidt has this reputation of being a control freak so maybe he’ll ease it up.
JG: In 2016 they were worked out. It’s been Conor Murray and Sexton for a long time and no one has really come in to challenge.
BG: Joey Carberry will at 10 I’m sure. And Jacob Stockdale and Jordan Larmour are seriously exciting boys who I hope we’ll see with Garry Ringrose and Jarred Payne out.
PJ: You wonder if Payne will play again.
NC: Ireland are very good at coming from ambush positions and spoiling the party but they are less good being front runners. It’s a different test for Joe Schmidt this time...it’s whether they close it out.