No laughing matter, Finn – get it right!
IT’s not going to be the game either coach, or indeed set of fans, dreamed of – but this afternoon’s ‘auld alliance’ match at Murrayfield is massive nonetheless. By this evening, despite all the optimism and brave words of barely two week ago, either Scotland or France will be back in the mire contemplating the bleakest of 2018 Six Nations.
Supercharged Scotland were going to sweep into Cardiff and nick a rare away win with their exhilarating brand of rugby against a Wales team missing six or seven key players while France, re-energised under new management, were going to get off to a winning start against an Ireland side that rarely play well in Paris.
That was the pre-ordained script but, as we know, if you make too many plans or assumptions in sport, it rarely ends well. Both lost, Scotland very badly, France very narrowly, and both are now on the backfoot.
It all feels a bit Groundhog Day but, looking on the bright side, the combatants can get their show back on the road, push the reset button and still aim to get something out of this year’s tournament. If they win.
There’s no disguising the fact, however, that Scotland’s failure to perform at anything like their best in Cardiff is a huge jolt to the confidence and momentum built up throughout an impressive autumn, and, let’s not forget, a memorable away win against Australia in Sydney in the summer as well.
What went wrong? That is the question Gregor Townsend and his shellshocked squad have been addressing all week and you can be sure they haven’t lacked for advice from fans and media during that period. Team psychologist Damian Hughes has also been doing the rounds trying to repair battered minds. Indeed his latest book is entitled Five Steps to a Winning Mindset.
For what it’s worth – and hindsight is always 20-20 – here is my analysis. Scotland were obsessed with getting out of the blocks and imposing their trademark 100mph style and tempo on the game. They spoke about it a lot in the build up and their decision to close the roof signposted their desire for perfect conditions for running rugby.
The big problem with that, however, is that Wales knew exactly what was coming and laid their defensive plans accordingly. Scotland needed to go off piste at the start and give Wales something different and unexpected to worry and fret about.
The Scots also forgot, subconsciously, even if they uttered the right respectful words in the build-up, that the first thing a side must do on the road in the Six Nations is stay in the contest for as long as possible, ease your way into the game, make the opposition nervous and fretful and then strike. Yes they did once blitz France with five first half tries from home in 1999 – but how many other times in their entire history have they done that? Scotland needed to play the percentage game in the opening quarter. That doesn’t mean to say you don’t stay sharp and alert but you avoid reckless and headless play like the plague. Instead they were off playing Sevens – and a bad, lateral, predictable form of error-strewn Sevens – and the inevitable happened with Wales picking off an interception try by Gareth Davies and then scoring a nicely worked try from Leigh Halfpenny. Almost no sides in the history of the Championship have come back from a 14-0 deficit away from home. So the game was over almost before it started. Finn Russell and Ali Price – and I am a fan of both – were cats on a hot tin roof and offered no control for Scotland. Russell was criticised by both Sir Clive Woodward and former Scotland wing Kenny Logan for his laughing demeanour during the national anthems and, although that might seem a tad harsh, my experience is that players either yawning mightily or laughing and joking around on such occasions are trying to hide overwhelming nerves and tension. Russell played like an individual who knew that his personal contribution, one way or another, was going to be decisive. There was just too much adrenaline coursing through his veins.
It’s not so much a Plan B that Scotland lack because they are only going to beat good teams by producing their high-tempo attacking game. Scotland have to stay true to themselves for the majority of the game, but they desperately need more nuances to their approach and somebody who can put their foot on the ball and slow things down just for a few minutes.
If Josh Struass or Ryan Wilson had been starting they could have punched their way up the middle a few times while Stuart Hogg’s massive siege gun boot is much underused. Yes he’s one of the great counter-attacking full-backs in the game but why not ring the changes occasionally and just plant the ball 70 yards downfield? Russell is a little magician at his best but tries too much, just go through some routine plays occasionally and lull the opposition defence.
I would be surprised if some of the Scotland discussions this week haven’t centred around those points, but the proof of the pudding will be seen this afternoon. It’s a fine balance for Townsend. He had a group of players who can produce stunning passages of rugby that can test the best in the world, but such an approach can go pearshaped very quickly. Learning when to modify it is going to be the big challenge now and in the future. Flanker Hamish Watson, below right – brilliant against Wales 12 months ago but comprehensively outplayed in Cardiff last week – seems to have taken that on board.
“Obviously we want to score tries and play a good brand of rugby but I think it’s also a winning sport so you’ve got to take the win. We need to be physical upfront, get our defence right and start the game well. I don’t think many people were expecting it and the fans are probably quite right to be a bit hacked off after a game like that, but no-one’s hurting more than the players, so we need to put it right as well.
“We need to be a lot more clinical. There were far too many errors in that game. We lost a lot of ball first phase, I think we got past eight phases
once in the game, so that’s something that’s not really acceptable for us. But we need to go out and be positive and obviously it’s a must-win game for us if we want to have anything to do with this Championship. But it’s a mustwin for France as well, so it’s going to be tough.”
As for France, there are different nuances and frustrations. They should have won last week which is different from saying they deserved to win. A breath-taking moment of brilliance from Teddy Thomas, having been teed up by Antoine Dupont’s quick thinking, saw them take the lead but Anthony Belleau then blew the chance to close out victory with a botched penalty. Finally, they defended pretty well through 41 phases to force Johnny Sexton to launch a Hail Mary dropped goal from 45 yards.
They could have been running out today with a victory already notched up but the truth is that for most of a soggy game they weren’t very good. Even though they are now enjoying the brief honeymoon period new coaches are granted, there was very little invention and their discipline up front at times was appalling. Giant lock Sébastien Vahaamahina really needs to be made to sit a written examination on the laws, so comically ignorant of them did he seem. Other than the remarkable Guilhem Guirado at hooker they lack combativity up front and nothing was happening in midfield.
Repeat that performance and France are there for the taking and that will be a test of Gregor Townsend’s nerve. Scotland letting rip in a controlled fashion, like they were against Australia and for much of the match against New Zealand, could seriously damage this France side but this is Six Nations tournament rugby and events in Cardiff demonstrated you can’t put all your eggs in one basket. France are well capable of picking off some early scores if Scotland overcook it too soon – and with a capacity crowd at Murrayfield and bagpipes swirling the temptation will be there. An intriguing, important and very nervous afternoon awaits.