>> Premiership playoff preview
Brendan Gallagher sets the scene for next week’s Premiership semi-finals ...and picks his winners
WE may have purred at many of Wasps’ tries this season and cheered inwardly at the sheer audacity of Newcastle Falcons taking on the big boys and earning a top four place but, ultimately, I would be very surprised indeed if the Premiership season doesn’t end with an Exeter-Saracens showdown at Twickenham. Those two remain the yardsticks for domestic club rugby in England.
When push comes to shove and they need to prevail in ‘must win’ games, Exeter and Saracens are a class apart and frankly they have had so much in hand in recent weeks that we all know both teams have another gear or two they can engage.
That struck me very forcibly only last Saturday when Chiefs – just dabbing the accelerator gently when necessary – encountered a fired-up Quins side hell bent on salvaging some pride and still walked away with a 41-17 win. A business-like Rob Baxter wasn’t overly impressed and spoke of how tricky it has been to keep Chiefs firing after they secured a home play-off spot early in April but, frankly, to the rest of us, the Chiefs looked in mighty good order.
One of the great conjuring tricks Baxter has pulled off is that when Exeter rotate their team it’s very difficult to tell what is actually their strongest starting side, I guess we will only know for sure next week against Newcastle. Even though Chiefs still lack some of the stellar names of others, their strength in depth is quite exceptional. They have the best part of 40 players who are all ‘starters’ in quality and attitude.
That enables them to weather the storms of a Premiership season with some ease and although you get nothing these days for finishing top of the regular season log, it’s worth noting the achievement of a team that have finished 24 points clear of fourth place Newcastle, their opponents next week.
They have achieved that almost without breaking sweat and arrive at the business end of the season in good shape and comparatively well rested. And all this in the traditionally difficult season after a first Championship title when you have to recalibrate and go again.
Going into the next fortnight I make Exeter favourites although Sarries are in close attendance and I base that partially – and perhaps illogically – on their comparative performances away to Leinster in the European Cup which, within Britain and Ireland, is currently the ultimate test.
Exeter should have won in Dublin, they were for large periods the better side and got undone by a poor late decision which gifted a try after a clear forward pass. Exeter played at a different level and although disappointed will have learned a lot that day. Saracens meanwhile got pretty comprehensively beaten by Leinster in the quarter-finals and on occasions looked a little short of ideas.
The Chiefs cherish the ball like few others and when they are in the groove must be a nightmare to play against because you get so little time in possession yourself. They make you tackle and defend at full tilt from minute one to the end and few sides can survive that almost insidious intensity without cracking at some stage. When that happens Chiefs tend to score tries in match winning clusters.
Baxter has also given free rein to a handful of huge young English talents this season – the Simmonds brothers Sam and Joe, Jonny Hill and Sam Skinner – who have not only brought fresh energy but a different level of athleticism to proceedings.
Sam Simmonds may have hogged the headlines thus far with his 12 Premiership tries and England call-up but in recent months it’s had been flyhalf Joe who has caught the eye with his playmaking, pace and goalkicking.
To keep club legend Gareth Steenson out of the side is some achievement even if, come the knockout stages, Baxter might yet be tempted to start with the Ulsterman.
England aren’t exactly short of locks but both Hill and Skinner have that combination of athleticsim and controlled stroppiness that marks
them out for high honours, possibly sooner rather than later.
Is there anything Newcastle can do to stave off what would appear inevitable defeat? Well, yes, primarily keep playing the way they have all season, change nothing for the biggest match of the season. Newcastle can surprise teams with their strength and ingenuity up front and can hurt you behind the scrum.
Falcons have the confidence of seven league wins away from Kingston Park and have already gone toe to toe with Chiefs twice this season with honours even, winning at home and losing at Sandy Park where they did, however, pick up a meritorious try bonus.
They are underdogs and have nothing to lose. But they do need to make the fastest of starts. If they allow Exeter to compile a score early on then it will be all over.
Meanwhile, Saracens with virtually all their big names barring Billy Vunipola back on board and fully firing will, of course, be formidable and they’ve been warming up with some free-flowing high scoring wins.
Expect a slightly more conservative approach, at least initially, against Wasps whose fault line remains a front five who can struggle in the tight and with the big collisions against the very best.
Semi-finals are for winning pure and simple and that is why Saracens will remorselessly go to work. If they gain the ascendency it will make life very difficult indeed for Wasps.
Against many sides Wasps, with their stellar backline, can still thrive without a dominating forward platform, especially if Thomas Young and others are winning the battle of the breakdown and winning plenty of turnover ball. But that is doubly difficult against a side like Saracens who also have the meanest defence in the league. If they don’t shut you down at source their relentless defence – with skipper Brad Barritt to the fore – offers up very little breathing space.
Wasps have got to somehow break the game up, almost deconstruct it and bring a little anarchy into proceedings. They have players such as Willie le Roux, Christian Wade, Elliot Daly and Danny Cipriani who can do that but it will need more.
Quick and perhaps reduced lineouts, inventive restarts, tapped penalties, quick pick-ups at No.8 to take the heat out of scrumtime – they must try and shake up the brilliantly organised Sarries. They must also stop their annoying habit of switching off after an hour or when they think the game is won – they are second only to Clermont in that.
Wasps know that and with the adrenaline pumping I’m anticipating an 80 minute performance. Even that probably won’t be enough but it should make for a hell of a match.