Two Welshmen would make a composite Lions-Boks XV
This was the week in which there was a rare alignment of the rugby calendar, and in both instances it revolved around the Springboks. It marked a year until the 2021 Lions arrive in South Africa to prepare for their opening tour game against the Stormers in Cape Town, before a three Test series against the world champion Springboks. It was also the 25th anniversary of South Africa beating New Zealand in the 1995 World Cup final (on June 24), to win the first of their three world titles.
This coincidence provides us with a timely reminder of just how difficult it is to beat South Africa in their own backyard. The Lions have done it just twice in the modern era – in 1974 and 1997 – set against six series defeats and one draw in the century from 1910 to 2009.
It took New Zealand even longer. The All Blacks had to wait until 1996 to win their first and only series on Springbok turf, having failed on five previous tours stretching back to the 1920s.
What this history lesson tells us is that we should ditch any notion that the 2021 Lions are starting at anything close to parity. Much as the 1974 and 1997 Lions sides are lauded to the heavens in Britain and Ireland, they are distinct exceptions to the overall rule of South African dominance when they host illustrious touring teams.
This time, as in 1997 and 2009, the Springboks are going into the series as deserved world champions, no ifs or buts. Their 2019 World Cup campaign, under the command of Rassie Erasmus was the best run of them all. They lasted the course better than rivals like New Zealand and England, and kept their eye on the main prize from first to last, peaking when it mattered most in the final, playing a game of such withering intensity in Yokohama that the team wearing the red rose wilted.
There is also the growing spectre of the Lions arriving in South Africa this time next year battered and bruised before they play a single tour match because of global rugby politics cramming them into a fiveweek window with virtually no preparation time.
This is verging on the suicidal in Test rugby terms, and it is astounding that World Rugby chairman Bill Beaumont, a former Lions captain and manager, has not taken a stand against this senseless downgrading.
These are the reasons why South Africa hold most of the aces, despite Lions coach Warren Gatland having a treasure trove of players from the four Home Unions to pick from.
It is reflected in a 9-6 split to the Springboks in this ‘best of both’ combined South Africa/Lions AllStar 15 selected a year out from the tour.
The main issue for Lions fans will be that South Africa have secured most of the core tactical positions along the spine of the team, from Bongi Mbonambi at hooker, to lock Eben Etzebeth, No.8 Duane Vermeulen, half-backs Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard, and inside centre Damian De Allende.
Mbonambi highlights the depth in South Africa’s pack, not least because he keeps the giant Malcolm Marx – who many believe to be the world’s best hooker – on the bench. Mbonambi started for the Springboks in the 2019 World Cup semi-final and final, and did so because not only are his set piece basics outstanding – with his lineout throwing superior to Marx – but also because his work-rate in the loose is off the charts.
Etzebeth is South Africa’s failsafe line-out jumper, and a huge physical presence at 6ft 8ins and over 19 stone (123kg). The second row bruiser also has the mobility to be a formidable defensive presence, finishing the World Cup final as the second-highest Springbok tackler with 13.
Vermeulen is deep into veteran territory – the talismanic No.8 will be 34 when the Lions arrive – but having played club rugby in Japan for the last few seasons he is in a good position to limit wear-and-tear and peak when required.
Vermeulen was hugely influential at the World Cup, overshadowing Billy Vunipola in the final both as a ball-carrier and breakdown presence. However, South Africa have never lacked back row talent, and Springbok director of rugby
Erasmus and new head coach
Jacques
Nienaber have a year in which to bring promising No.8s like Junior Pokomela, Muller Uys and Jaco Coetzee up to running-speed as cover.
Where Lions coach Gatland will probably have to recast his 9-10 partnership, with his 2017 Irish pairing of Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton slowing down, Erasmus has a duo in their prime in De Klerk and Pollard. De Klerk is a ball of combative energy at scrumhalf, but
also a very clever operator with a good kicking game and sharp break, who varies the tempo expertly, and keeps his pack on the boil. Pollard is a match for his likely fly-half rival, Owen Farrell, as a pressure goalkicker, but has also matured into a shrewd tactician who offers a threat, both with his educated boot and as a line-breaker with size and speed. Furthermore, if Pollard does not make headway then the man direct. ly outside him will De Allende is a classic straight running, hard-carry ing big Springbok centre with he and Pollard making almost as many metres in the World Cup final (126), as the entire England tally (173).
If you add to that the scrummag ing and carrying power of Steven Kitshoff as a ready-made replace ment at loose-head the retired Tendai Mtawarira and the all-round impact at flanker of World Rugby Player of the Year, Pieter-Steph du Toit, and there is little room to dispute South Africa’ five-man share of the combined pack.
That leaves a three-man Lions forward contingent of Irish tight-head Tadhg Furlong, and the English duo of lock Maro Itoje and openside Sam Underhill.
Furlong secures the No.3 shirt
because of his all-court ability in the scrum and around the pitch. However, the 2021 Lions will need a turbo boost off the bench given the way that the Springboks ‘double-team’ the opposition front row by starting with Frans Malherbe, a heavyweight tight-head stuck in first gear, before switching to the dynamic Vincent Koch.
Itoje gets ahead of the taller Springboks trio of Lood De Jager, R G Snyman and Franco Mostert, because there is no one to match him for high-level consistency of performance in the second row – or anywhere else in the pack.
Underhill is given the nod over Siya Kolisi at openside, even though he was unable to replicate his physicality and excellence at the breakdown in the knockout stages against Australia and New Zealand when he faced the South African captain in the final. However, Underhill has shown that he is capable of hitting the heights on enough big international occasions to underline his indispensability as a flanker who turns defence into attack.
The Lions come into their own in the outside backs, with Cheslin Kolbe the only Springbok to claim a shirt. Kolbe’s side-stepping wizardry makes him a creator as well as a finisher, and he takes his place on the right wing alongside a Lions trio of Jonny May (left wing), Jonathan Davies (outside centre) and Liam Williams (full-back).
May’s strike rate over the last two years is outstanding, and when it comes to opening up defences and taking chances that he plucks from thin air he is without peer. By comparison, South Africa’s Makazole Mapimpi has made a promising start at international level, but is still in the foothills.
Jonathan Davies is a proven bigmatch animal, whether for the Lions in 2013 and 2017, as well as for Wales throughout Gatland’s tenure in charge, whereas his likely Springbok opposite number, Lukhanyo Am, who is a ghosting runner and sound defender, is relatively inexperienced. Where Am has 15 caps Davies has 81 Welsh and six Lions Tests to his name, and has a proven track-record as an inspirational centre who is
equally effective in attack and defence. Scotland captain Stuart Hogg is expected to make a spirited case for inclusion, but the incumbent candidates at full-back are Williams and Willie Le Roux, both of them experienced, with 60-plus caps each, and similar in being richly talented and quixotic enough to counter-attack from their own line.
Le Roux is a World Cup winner, while Williams is not. Even so the Welsh 15 is picked to start, because as well as the attacking flair he showed in full measure against the All Blacks three years ago, he brings a more uncompromising edge under the high ball and in the tackle than the Springbok. However, there is no disputing that resilience is part of South African rugby’s DNA. When the Springboks beat
England to secure their second World Cup title in Paris in 2007 it precipitated a prolonged player exodus which saw the majority of the country’s best professional players, as well as those in the second and third tiers below them, depart for more lucrative contracts with European and Japanese clubs.
This has remained the case ever since, and the disparity between the rand and European currencies, as well as the introduction of a racial quota system in selection within South Africa, threatened to leave the Springboks threadbare as an international force after failing to make the final in 2011 and 2015.
However, the way South Africa bounced back to win the 2019 World Cup under the astute guidance of Erasmus has shown that reservoir of rugby talent is being replenished at such a rate that the future of the sport below the Zambezi River looks more fertile than it is in most parts of the rugby planet.
England were given a timely reminder of just how difficult a proposition South Africa would be in Japan when they toured South Africa in the summer of 2018, and were comprehensively beaten in the first two Tests of the three
match series – including conceding a pushover penalty try in the second Test in Bloemfontein.
Erasmus knew he had their number at the scrum and line-out. He was confident that as long as the Springboks played to those strengths, and applied pressure through a suffocating kick-chase plan, they had a template for beating England.
His ‘bomb squad’ concept of introducing a fresh bench front five that is as strong as the starting front five exposed England’s lack of depth and rigour as a scrummaging side. This set in motion a domino effect which saw South Africa on the front foot, and dominant in the loose, as well as the set-piece.
Gatland has had experience of having to play catch-up unsuccessfully against South Africa, as forwards coach when the 2009 Lions scrum was ambushed in the first Test, and a lightweight front row was exposed.
He does not tend to repeat mistakes, and, if the 2021 Lions pack heeds the lessons and can turn the screw on the Springboks up front, there is every chance this 9-6 split will be reversed in favour of the tourists when we pick the team of the series next year.