This settled Irish side are my favourites to win
THE advantage that Wales have going into today’s game against Ireland is that they are playing at the Principality Stadium, where they know the beautiful pitch better than the visitors, and also are more familiar with playing under a closed roof.
What is the same for both sides is the mouth-watering prospect of playing rugby which is unaffected by the weather conditions, with no one having to adapt to a strong wind or heavy rain.
However, as strange as playing international rugby must be in Covid conditions, it will be stranger still for Ireland – so in terms of being settled, it will be advantage Wales in Cardiff.
However, it is being settled in your selection which probably matters most, and in that respect the Irish are pretty well-established with most of the forwards long-term starters – with only Rob Herring, Andrew Porter, and Tadhg Beirne recent additions – and the 9, 10, 12, 13, and 14 almost permanent fixtures over the last eight years.
The impression is that the likes of Peter O’Mahony, CJ Stander, Conor Murray, Johnny Sexton, Keith Earls, Garry Ringrose and Robbie Henshaw have been around forever, and are much more established than their Welsh counterparts.
However, that’s a false impression, because the established names in the two sides are pretty well equal, with Leigh Halfpenny, George North, Dan Biggar, Ken Owens, Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric, Taulupe Faletau and Dan Lydiate evening the score.
In fact, Walers have named their most experienced side ever with 874 caps. It’s the changes in personnel that makes them seem less consistent.
It has been a tumultuous first year for head coach Wayne Pivac, with the Welsh having difficulty in coming to terms with a complete change in coaching regime, whereas for the Irish, Andy Farrell was already a big part of Joe Schmidt’s operation before taking over the lead role.
I am also swayed towards the Irish because Wales have had such a poor set of results under Pivac so far, highlighted by them winning only one game in last season’s Six Nations – against Italy – and finishing fifth.
It seems that despite the experience in the Welsh team, the link established between the coaches and players under Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards was disconnected when Pivac took over. Restoring that link is obviously difficult, and that has hit confidence – and then you are fighting for a big win to set you on your way.
Nothing would do that more effectively than beating an established Ireland side which finished third in the table last season, but the reality is that I cannot remember the last time either of these teams put in a rock-and-roll performance. There’s been nothing from Wales to shout about since the 2019 World Cup, and for Ireland it’s been even longer. So, given the calibre of players on both sides, the key in Cardiff this afternoon will be which side rediscover first what they have been missing. The Irish have good ball-carriers in their forwards, and they probably nudge the Welsh in that department, although in the second row Alun Wyn Jones and Adam Beard will be very evenly matched with James Ryan and Beirne.
The Welsh backrow experiment of bringing Lydiate back after two years out could also work, although first he will have to get on top of O’Mahony. The veteran Irish blindside looks as if he’s been bandaged together, but he’s so wily that he always seems to get where he needs to be. It should be a great battle, because it won’t take long for Lydiate, a very brave player who had a great partnership with Sam Warburton, to get back into it in defence.
Both sides like to keep the ball and build pressure, and that template under Schmidt is still central to how Ireland play. Farrell has been part of the Irish set-up for some years, and it doesn’t look as if great changes are afoot. As for Wales, it is not clear yet what Wayne Pivac’s style is. You could say we are still waiting for the ‘Pivacball’ imprint.
The teams are very well matched everywhere apart from the midfield, where the Irish pairing of Henshaw and Ringrose is far more impressive than Johnny Williams and George North. In which will world, outside Wales, would North be considered to be a Test outside-centre? It is such a difficult business defending at 13, and at
“It is not clear yet what Wayne Pivac’s style is. We are still waiting for the ‘Pivacball’ imprint”
this level North could be exposed – and I would expect the Irish to do that if they want to be seen as a good attacking side.
The problem they have is that Sexton last showed his brilliance a few years ago, and while the Irish fly-half is capable of a solid performance, it remains to be seen if he can last for 80 minutes without being on the deck nursing an injury. Sexton will want to prove he is still good enough to go on a Lions tour, and to do that he will have to be a dominant figure in this Six Nations, which includes out-shining Dan Biggar.
In the back three, James Lowe, who has been good for Leinster, will line up opposite Louis Rees-Zammit, the young Welsh winger who has been exciting everybody. Rees-Zammit has real pace, so I’m looking forward to seeing him, and I like Hallam Amos too. Amos is pretty accomplished, but he has been kept out of the side by either Liam Williams or Josh Adams – although Adams’ silly mistake in breaching the bubble regulations has given him a chance to start against the Irish.
It is not so difficult for a winger like Rees-Zammit to get involved in today’s game because of the amount of kicking. It means that they are constantly having to chase kicks, or field them, but where he will have to be patient is waiting for that try-scoring opportunity to come along, and when it does, making the most of it.
We will get a quick measure of whether Rees-Zammit will be a regular international by seeing if he has the same time on the ball as he has for Gloucester, and whether he finishes as well as he does in the Premiership.
Lowe also knows where the try-line is for Leinster, and is good under the high ball, but he is only just getting established at international level. There was a lot of anticipation of the New Zealander becoming Irish qualified under the three-year residency rule. Now he has to take the next step.
Overall, the Irish bench looks a little bit more heavyweight, and it is a brave call by Pivac to start Johnny Williams at inside-centre when you have such a good, solid 12 as Nick Tompkins among your replacements.
This is a huge game for both coaches, and although the teams are very well matched, I have to put the Irish as narrow favourites based on recent results. But this is no ordinary season, and there would be no surprises if Wales won.