England’s pack must power up
Wales may have had the not insignificant advantage of playing against 14 men in their first two games – but what their stats tell you is that they are taking chances when they come around, just like the All Blaks almost always do.
When you look at the overall match statistics at Murrayfield last weekend it is difficult to understand how Scotland lost. The Scots had 62 per cent possession compared with 38 per cent for Wales, in terms of territory it was the Scots leading 65 to 35 per cent, in metres run it was the Scots 508 to 188, in clean breaks it was the Scots 11 to 7, and in terms of missed tackles it was six by the Scots to 27 by the Welsh.
Some of it was self-inflicted. Scotland kicked penalties to the corner when they could have put points on the scoreboard, and missed a couple of conversions – so they didn’t help their own cause.
But Wales made the most of turning defensive pressure to their advantage. They not only attempted 206 tackles to 110, they scored four tries to Scotland’s three. New Zealand’s stats used to be a bit like this because they scored from every opportunity – and what the Welsh figures tell you is that they are doing the same.
Now we will find out on Saturday just how good the Welsh are when they play against 15 – although I don’t think they will be fazed by the prospect.
This makes Wayne Pivac’s side a difficult proposition for England in Cardiff at the midpoint of the tournament.
The Welsh used defence as a springboard to get into the Scotland game, and it paid dividends in the brilliance that Louis Rees-Zammit showed in scoring the precision chip-and-chase try that clinched it for them.
But I also really enjoyed the Liam Williams try because of the interplay where Rees-Zammit found the gap after coming into the line, and then gave Williams the scoring pass.
It is inevitable Rees-Zammit will be built up. This seems unfair because he is so young, but there again he has shown such talent as a try-scoring machine.
At the moment if you give him a chance from anywhere he just nails it – it’s like having a football striker who will not just stick everything in the six yard box into the back of the net, but everything from 30 to 40 metres out as well.
You love to see brilliance of that nature whatever country you support – it’s just wonderful to watch and the Six Nations needs it.
What is interesting is that Wales are also improving their set-piece. There were question marks about the Welsh lineout against Ireland, which they clearly got right by the time they played Scotland, when they won 11 of their 12 throws. There was also nothing in it in terms of discipline, with Wales conceding 12 penalties, to 11 by Scotland. By contrast, England gave away 15 penalties against Scotland, including a rash early in the first half and, as things stand, there is nothing I have seen from England which makes me think they can beat Wales by double figures this weekend.
Since the World Cup the expectation has been that England will go out and win well against most sides in the Six Nations, and last season I thought they won comfortably against Ireland and Wales, even though the Welsh result was close on the final scoreboard. Things have slipped since then, and England have struggled in the Covid conditions with no crowds. But some sides have adjusted better than others.
I was not taken aback by the club games I watched before Christmas without crowds, including the European Cup final, but working at the Scotland v Wales match last weekend I was gobsmacked by how quiet it was when the teams walked out. I really felt for the players because there was nothing there to feed off. Teams have played for several months under these circumstances, but England have a high world ranking, and they have their pride, and that should be enough to get them there mentally, even though it must be difficult.
As a player, I lived off the huge noise, excitement, and atmosphere of international rugby, and I’ve never experienced not playing in front of crowds at that level. But you have to make the most it, and to motivate yourself to be better than the opposition.
Even so, I would be confident if I was Wales, because there is nothing in England’s game at the moment to really worry about. It is just a case of ‘in Eddie Jones we trust’, mainly because he won the 2020 Six Nations title and followed it by adding the Autumn Nations Cup, even though it wasn’t great in terms of performance.
They have come out of that spell flat, and taken that into the 2021 Six Nations, but sport can change very quickly. England could come out strong against Wales, and if they don’t give away penalties, they can put Wales under pressure – and we know that Owen Farrell can kick goals.
England rely on their forwards being a power pack, because their backs are lightweight without much heft, especially in midfield. They are a bit neutral, and it is a backline that needs a straightening runner who can do some damage. Otherwise the opposition knows where and how England are going to attack, and although they may have scored six tries against Italy, you expect that Wales, France and Ireland will be a lot more difficult to break down.
However, if the English ball-carriers start punching holes in the Welsh defence, and become an unrelenting wave – unlike against Scotland or Italy – then it will be game over.
Maro Itoje, left, is legions above everyone else in the England pack in terms of performance, even though Tom Curry is always on the go, and Kyle Sinckler did well in getting the man-of-the-match award against Italy. The big problem is reading too much into it, because Italy are a bye in this tournament for every opposition team.
The forwards were shaken up a bit with Luke Cowan-Dickie bought in at hooker, and Jamie George looking as if he was dropped, while at No.8 Billy Vunipola has not managed to find anything more so far in this campaign.
Eddie Jones knows that his main back row ball-carrier needs games to get back to his best, and that he could really do with Billy getting up a head of steam against Wales.
It is 12 months since England looked convincing, and in terms of international rugby that is a long time ago.
“Maro Itoje is legions above everyone else in the England pack in terms of performance”
They need a spark from somewhere, and need reminding that players with their track-record do not suddenly become bad overnight.
To give Farrell his due, although he’s not been playing especially well, he’s come across in interviews as wellbalanced.
England have to accept that it is not clicking for them at present and, rather than trying to prove the media criticism wrong, should be motivated to prove to themselves how much more they can achieve. This side is not over the hill. When you look at Itoje play, what he does is world class – and that’s the level that the rest of his teammates have to find.
There also has to be a big improvement in discipline because England couldn’t stop giving away penalties against Scotland. It is difficult to measure England against Italy, but at least it gave them the opportunity to re-boot – and that is what the players needed.
If England can find their power game, and keep the penalty count much lower, then they will win. But if not, with Wales getting players like Jonathan Davies back from injury, and a finisher of Rees-Zammit’s talent so full of confidence, we know they can snatch games from anyone’s grasp.