At last minnows will have their chances
IT’S an ill wind that blows no good. I’ve been listening to the howls of indignation recently over the “premature” World Cup draw three years ago which has resulted in the top five sides in the world, on current rankings, being lumped on one side of the draw but, unlike some, I am sanguine about the prospect. In fact, and I know this makes me a bad person, I welcome it.
Barring massive upsets, France and New Zealand will be meeting either South Africa, Ireland or indeed Scotland in two of the four quarter-finals. One highly rated team won’t make the quarters and another two won’t make the semi-finals. Meanwhile, who knows who might emerge from the second half of the draw.
Now, as somebody who longs for the day that Ireland finally do themselves justice in the World Cup, I understand, to an extent, the gnashing of teeth and cursing sotto voce of many... but actually, as a rugby fan generally, I am not the slightest bit bothered. Indeed, I am more than a little amused that the rugby blazers, in their attempt to micromanage everything and ensure the big names always get a smooth passage to the later stages with their elaborate seeded draws, have messed up on this occasion.
Let’s be quite clear here, historically Rugby World Cup is set up to mitigate against the chances of major upsets and the minnows progressing. That is not the idea at all, heaven forbid. Just five nations have ever reached the final – New Zealand, South Africa, Australia, England and France – and only the first four have won the Webb Ellis trophy. It’s the most intimate of cosy clubs.
It’s unquestionably getting a tad better but in tournaments past, the big boys have enjoyed ideal, regularly spaced schedules and ample rest time between big crunch
games while the minnows
– at an immediate disadvantage anyway with less squad depth – have been sent on quick fire magical mystery tours around the host nation or nations with scarcely enough time to unpack their bags and launder their dirty kit. Although it’s meant to be pot luck with hotels, my observation over the years is that some nations are manifestly more equal than others.
Rugby tries to be risk averse. Take the current Heineken Champions Cup. As if Leinster, with their gargantuan star-studded centrally contracted squad some of whom are only required twice a month at most, weren’t already favoured enough before a ball was kicked, a system has been devised that if they go all the way and win the damned thing they will have played six of their eight games at home in Dublin with five of those at the Aviva. Furthermore, they know this in advance from the culmination of their pool games and
can play accordingly, there is not even the risk of an open draw and a tricky visit to, say, La Rochelle or Saracens.
This is where The Heineken Cup, even in its pomp, has sometimes missed out on the essence of true cup rugby, as epitomised by the FA Cup, the best and most enduring sporting cup competition on the planet.
Now, yes, in the FA Cup the big boys from the top two divisions do get a bye to round three, the round of 64, so it is controlled to that extent but thereafter, they are not spared one jot. It’s dog eats dog. In Round 3 Manchester United could be drawn against Manchester City, Arsenal might tackle Tottenham and Liverpool may be required to take on Chelsea. By the Monday night of that first weekend in January, three of the giants might be contenders no more. There will be blood in the water and the sharks circling. Wonderful.
That’s the flip side, the ‘romance’ and unpredictability of the Cup, the crowd pulling, myth making appeal of the competition and the chance for the middling teams and the ambitious minnows to wage a campaign that can become the stuff of legend and energise the entire competition. Such runs can be the makings of smaller teams and nations, giving them the launching pad for greater things on a more consistent basis. A few months in the sunny uplands can help grow a team.
Rugby doesn’t really like that jeopardy, in fact it hates such a notion generally. In Europe, there are currently only four or five teams that, given the current format, can win the Heineken Cup, just as there are usually only five sides who can reach the World Cup Final.
However, thanks to the premature draw debacle, in France this autumn we at least have the potential for David to roll up his sleeves and give Goliath a bloody nose.
Take Pool C on the “softer” side of the draw. At first glance, you would fancy
Australia and Wales to go through but hold your horses. Consistency is not the hallmark of either side and Georgia are on the charge again after a few years of marking time and will fancy their chances in a one-off against the Welsh. Their pack is getting even more gnarly and streetwise and in Davit Niniashvili they have a world class talent who adds a cutting edge to their back division.
Fiji are on the up with a bigger pool of battle hardened fully professional players to select from than ever before and have nothing to fear against anybody while if Portugal can field their best 15 – they have been hit by a spate of injuries recently – they could give a good account of themselves and will be targeting the games against Fiji and Georgia. Anything could happen in Pool C which, from a tournament point of view, is bloody marvellous.
Ditto Pool D. England might get their act together but Japan will travel in expectation as well as hope with one win against either Steve Borthwick team or against the Pumas putting them well and truly in the frame.
One of the middle ranking teams could easily make it through to the knockout stages on this side of the draw and then we really are into fairytale territory. It’s what rugby desperately needs. The course and narrative of a sport’s global competition should not be so pre-ordained as is the case with rugby. Only the Pumas have consistently thrown a spanner in the works at RWC, we need rugby’s equivalents of Croatia or Morocco in the FIFA World Cup to make their mark.
So bring it on, I say. Embrace the unpredictability and relish those massive early games that will now have the intensity of the final itself. And rest assured that when push comes to shove, the best team will win the World Cup. They always do.