Brexit: dawn or disaster?
If the referendum on leaving the European Union was run again, would you vote the same way? In the second half of our Special Report, Ed Asquith spoke to two of our regional MEPs Richard Corbett (Labour, former adviser to a president of the European Counc
If the referendum on leaving the EU was run again, would you vote the same? Read the second half of our newsfeature.
What about immigration and recruitment?
In light of concern that the imposition of immigration curbs has already reduced the flow of skilled restaurant staff, and could cause severe labour shortages for practically every sector of manufacturing and services, we asked how the MEPS view the decision to leave the EU.
The arrivals of new nurses and midwives from the EU have also already fallen, with 2,270 over April May last year compared to 131 this year.
The government is now indicating that a sudden cut off in immigration would need to be reviewed and phased in or modified.
Mr Corbett said that “legally it would be very difficult, perhaps practically impossible” for the UK to decide its own policy of the movement and rights of EU labour. “The European Court of Justice decide common rules. It would be impossible to extract every aspect affecting European citizens and workforces,” he said.
Concerned at the impact on service industries in particular, staffing for restaurants and hotels, and the effects on nurses, for example, who might prefer to work in other EU countries rather than the UK, especially when they hear of incidents such as the murder of a Polish man in Essex. It creates an impression that we are not welcoming.
“There is uncertainty over the rules ... could I bring in a family member, and perhaps they would otherwise go to Sweden or Italy.
Mr Procter said migrants have economic rights and would undertake jobs in the UK that others did not want to do and that a distinction had to be made between highly skilled and unskilled labour.
The European Court of Justice could oversee any agreement between the EU and the UK, from the perspective of EU law.
BUSINESS AND TOURISM
How will business and tourists be affected?
Companies which trade with Europe are facing exchange rate increases and supply chain uncertainty.
Staying in a Customs Union instead of full EU membership would mean the UK could not create its own deals with countries around the world, and the Federation of Small Businesses says they would be least able to cope with post-Brexit trade barriers.
Airlines, such as Ryanair, say it “will be cancelling holidays” in 2019 if a deal on aviation is not agreed.
The idea of a European Economic Area (referred to as the Norwegian option) could mean compromise on the free movement of people and accepting EU law, upsetting many Brexit voters.
The Institute of Directors fears that a weaker exchange rate could raise UK business costs by 5%.
Mr Corbett said geography had to bow to international reality. “A lot of businesses and their supply chains want and need to go across borders, whether it is for agriculture, aerospace or engineering. Exporters would face particular problems.”
He said on entry to an EU country with passports we could end up with Britons in a separate, perhaps longer, queue. The entire Brexit process could be complicated by the need for the UK to create a new range of regulatory agencies to fill gaps currently undertaken by EU legislation.
“There is a European Air Safety Agency. If we are leaving, it would mean creating our own agency and having to fund it,” he said.
Mr Procter questioned the accuracy of claims that the business world has not been sufficiently involved in the Brexit process by government.
He said: “There has been lobbying from a number of organisations.
“The UK wants to trade with Europe and Europe feels the same.”
Mr Procter added that Britain would still decide the key points. “Don’t forget that it is the commissioners of each nation state in the EU, including the UK, who will decide what happens.”
Mr Procter, EU culture and education spokesman and his group’s deputy chief whip, is also concerned about copyright issues and data protection.
He has raised questions to the Parliament, saying that, as the end date for Britain leaving the EU is to be at some point in 2019, there will be an overlap of about one year in which UK citizens accessing the EU institutions’ websites will be subject to the data protection rules as they apply to EU bodies and institutions, and asking how the status of the EU bodies’ protection of UK citizens’ personal data will change after the split.
WHY ARE WE SCEPTICAL ...
Why is there a disconnect between us and EU empire?
The Leave vote brought to the fore a number of issues – some people wanted immigration curbs, some were concerned over sovereignty, others with a general antipathy against distant bureaucracy and maybe some motivated by the costs of membership or reluctance to see the UK as part of the EU empire.
Mr Corbett, who is deputy leader of the European Parliamentary Labour Party, and a prolific writer and blogger, said: “Some people say we voted to Leave is because we are an island but so is Ireland and Malta, or that we were a major empire but so were Portugal, France and Holland.
But over the past 20 years, there has been in the written media a matter of policy in having a Eurosceptic line, drip by drip, with silly stories projected. It affects public opinion.”
Mr Procter said: “It’s to do with history and different nation states.
“We have a different psyche to other European countries but people have been misinformed and there has been mis-reporting with views that are not accurate.
“We abide by the all the rules and the others don’t.
“The reality is that what is agreed is left to nation states to implement and successive civil servants
‘Exporters could face particular problems...’
have written the detail.
The others don’t do that, far more flexibility has been applied.”
THE PRICE
What price will be pay when we leave the EU?
Mr Corbett said: “A percentage of our GDP goes to Europe but most of that comes back.”
Mr Procter gave a different perspective on the same point, looking at it the other way: “We pay in more than we get back. We are a net contributor, as are France and Germany.
“So it works both ways ... there would be a black hole in the EU budget.”
The team of Michel Barnier, the EU lead negotiator on Brexit, who was told to “go whistle” for an estimated £60 billion to £80 billion UK settlement, anticipates an £8 billion a year loss in EU revenue.
Mr Procter said he wanted to look to the future and how best the problems could be resolved, with more information on what the voters want and what issues they are concerned about. He gave a message to the people of Whitby, Bridlington and Scarborough, saying: “I would like to hear what people and businesses have to say, what are their specific concerns?”