Long-term growth offsets decline in UK’S beef supply
FIGURES released this week confirm that UK beef supplies will remain tight for the rest of this year with production expected to fall by 2 per cent to a total of 860,000 tonnes but the longer term outlook is for more beef being produced.
The beef suckler herd in the UK is now at its lowest level since the late 1980s with 1.57 million head of cattle. This means that in the past ten years, the number of cows in the country has fallen by more than 200,000.
The one possible disruptive factor in a short market for beef might come from the dairy sector, where current milk prices are causing producers to reduce their cow numbers. The UK’S dairy herd was up 4 per cent in December 2014 at 1.88 million head and any culling from that number would add to beef production figures.
Currency values this year have made beef exports difficult and the tonnage of beef leaving the UK in the first five months of the year is down on the previous 12 months. Unless the pound weakens, this looks likely to be the situation for the rest of 2015.
Surprisingly with current currency values, import volumes this year are still forecast to be below the raised levels of 2014, but have recently been revised upwards given the sterling/euro relationship in the year to date.
Despite beef production in Ireland being expected to be lower in the next six months, the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) which produced the figures reckon it is possible that any reduction in trade to the UK could be moderated, given the competitive position of Irish beef on the UK market.
The present shortage of beef cattle being picked up by AHDB was first identified from British Cattle Movement Service data at the start of 2015 when significantly fewer cattle on the ground between 18 and 24 months of age were recorded compared with the figures from the previous year.
While figures to June show that numbers overall are back only three per cent on 2014, this conceals some notable variances in the trade.
Looking forward, British Cattle Movement Service data in April showed that the number of younger cattle on the ground was up on the year and therefore slaughterings in 2016 are forecast to edge back up to around 1.97 million head, with production anticipated to reach 879,000 tonnes.