Iraqis prepare for long, drawn-out battle with Islamic State militants

Most Iraqis anticipate that the operation will be a long and difficult one potentially spanning months. The Islamic State will be asking themselves how much of their dwindling resources they are willing to commit to a losing battle, at a time when they face an existential threat to the core of their Caliphate in Syria.

Last week, reports emerged of a convoy of IS militants and their families from Mosul arriving in Raqqa. Back in July 2016, Iraqi news reports claimed 1,500 IS members including senior leadership had fled to Syria soon after the recapture of Qayyarah airbase.

However,is militants can utilise the network of tunnels they have built in preparation for the offensive in order to put up a fierce fight. Mosul has been the epicentre of IS’S chemical weapons capability. The group has frequently used chlorine and mustard agent against the Kurds and the Iraqi Security Forces around Mosul over the past year, and chemical weapons are likely to play a role in its defence of the city.

The bulk of IS’S forces in Mosul are locals, many of which have been conscripted against their will. Order is maintained by a relatively small number of ideologically committed foreign fighters under threat. The ability of these foreign fighters to maintain order and to prevent defections will be key.

As Iraqi forces close in on Mosul, this may embolden local Mosul resistance including the Mosul Brigades who have only been able to mount a very limited – albeit symbolic resistance – to IS prior to the operation.

In the coming weeks or months as the fight enters urban areas their participation may prove invaluable in providing intelligence on IS whereabouts. l Zaineb Al-assam is a senior analyst at IHS Country Risk