A lot of work to do for post-eu deal to stick

Difficult tasks to be accomplished to ensure the UK gets a proper resolution, says John Maguire

0 PM Theresa May must negotiate a settlement for the UK

Politicians across the country seem to have been doing a lot of bridge-crossing lately. The problem is – we haven’t even reached the bridges in question.

Jeremy Corbyn denounced the potential UK/US trade deal because he wants to protect the NHS, but a trade deal is a long way off. Speaker Bercow intends to refuse Donald Trump the opportunity to address the Westminster Parliament – even though no such invitation has been issued.

And, amid fears that the UK will leave the Single Market, the Scottish Parliament voted against triggering Article 50. Yet negotiations haven’t even begun, and no-one has any idea what deal may be forthcoming.

Perhaps each of these examples is just a case of getting your retaliation in first.

In the case of Article 50, you would be forgiven for thinking, based on the ceaseless wringing of hands by die-hard Remain MPS, that the UK – and only the UK – could decide what our future will look like outside the EU. Meanwhile, MSPS are unhappy with the Prime Minister’s intended negotiating stance, believing that she is determined to take us out of the Single Market.

Yet few politicians seem to given any thought to what kind of deal the Europeans might want.

It’s a no-brainer that the UK wants to have the easiest possible access to the Single Market.

But the EU will also want the best possible access to the UK market. It may be that the EU refuses to agree a deal, or the UK government may conclude that any deal on offer would be unacceptable to the British electorate – who will be the ultimate arbiter – in the voting booth. Then and only then would it be necessary for the government to consider falling back on World Trade Organisation rules.

The Prime Minister will no doubt do her utmost to negotiate an agreement on the basis of mutually beneficial economic considerations. Hopefully she will be able to reach an understanding on tariff-free access for the UK to the Single Market. And, in return, the EU will have tarifffree to the larger UK market. (Reminder: the EU enjoys a £92.4 billion annual trade surplus with the UK).

If the UK cannot reach an agreement with EU, and if an early and successful Indyref takes Scotland out of the Union and Scotland gains full membership of the EU as an independent country, then Scotland’s future economic circumstances could face serious problems. The loss of the Barnett Formula, and potentially facing WTO rules for Scotland’s £78.6bn per annum worth of trade with the rest of the UK would seriously damage the economy.

There is a lot at stake, and a lot to think about.

Patience should be the name of the game.

We would be wise to check the lie of the land and delay crossing that bridge – until we know what’s on the other side. ● John Maguire is a retired diplomat. He lives in Kelso.