Humbling blow for referendum ambitions

Analysis Chris Green

Now that the dust has settled on the general election counts around the country, it is clear that the SNP is still the largest party in Scotland.

But it is difficult to interpret the results as anything other than a major blow for Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for another independence referendum.

The First Minister went into the night expecting to lose seats to the resurgent Conservatives, who built their campaign – again – around steadfast opposition to indyref2.

But she is unlikely to have foreseen the extent of the damage. Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who both spent the build up to the election condemning Ms Sturgeon’s fresh drive for independence, also won seven and four seats respectively. Examining the vote share tells a similar story: the SNP won around 37 per cent, a drop of 13 percentage points on 2015, while the Tories doubled their share to about 28 per cent.

At her press conference in Edinburgh yesterday, Ms Sturgeon appeared genuinely shellshocked and said she needed more time to decide what to do about indyref2.

Of course, the SNP could fall back on its manifesto pledge, which stated that winning the majority of seats in Scotland would give it a mandate to continue to argue for another independence referendum at the end of the Brexit process.

But to pursue such a course could alienate voters still further, a risk that Ms Sturgeon may be unwilling to take.

She will be aware that support for independence has not increased since 2014’s vote, and most people in Scotland are not in favour of holding another vote so soon.

Another huge win for the SNP at the election would have kept Ms Sturgeon’s indyref2 momentum going. But after a humbling night, she may have to step back from her plans – at least for now.